Invesco Water Etf Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| PHO Etf | USD 71.54 0.11 0.15% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Invesco Water Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 71.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.60. Invesco Etf Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Invesco |
Invesco Water Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Invesco Water Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 71.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48, mean absolute percentage error of 0.33, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.60.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Invesco Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Invesco Water's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Invesco Water Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Invesco Water | Invesco Water Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Invesco Water Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Invesco Water's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Invesco Water's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 70.67 and 72.41, respectively. We have considered Invesco Water's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Invesco Water etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Invesco Water etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.178 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0803 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4767 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0068 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.6 |
Predictive Modules for Invesco Water
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Invesco Water Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Invesco Water
For every potential investor in Invesco, whether a beginner or expert, Invesco Water's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Invesco Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Invesco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Invesco Water's price trends.Invesco Water Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Invesco Water etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Invesco Water could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Invesco Water by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Invesco Water Resources Technical and Predictive Analytics
The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Invesco Water's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Invesco Water's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Invesco Water Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Invesco Water etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Invesco Water shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Invesco Water etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Invesco Water Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Invesco Water Risk Indicators
The analysis of Invesco Water's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Invesco Water's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting invesco etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.71 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.7672 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.8667 | |||
| Variance | 0.7512 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.6848 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.5885 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.76) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Invesco Water
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Invesco Water position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Invesco Water will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Invesco Etf
| 0.69 | XLB | Materials Select Sector Sell-off Trend | PairCorr |
| 0.87 | VAW | Vanguard Materials Index | PairCorr |
| 0.84 | XME | SPDR SP Metals | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Invesco Water could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Invesco Water when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Invesco Water - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Invesco Water Resources to buy it.
The correlation of Invesco Water is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Invesco Water moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Invesco Water Resources moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Invesco Water can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Invesco Water to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
The market value of Invesco Water Resources is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Invesco that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Invesco Water's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Invesco Water's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Invesco Water's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Invesco Water's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Invesco Water's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Invesco Water is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Invesco Water's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.