Douglas Dynamics Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

PLOW Stock  USD 23.54  0.08  0.34%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Douglas Dynamics on the next trading day is expected to be 23.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.63. Douglas Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
At this time, Douglas Dynamics' Inventory Turnover is fairly stable compared to the past year. Payables Turnover is likely to climb to 23.22 in 2024, whereas Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 4.58 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to climb to about 23 M in 2024, whereas Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop slightly above 22.7 M in 2024.
Triple exponential smoothing for Douglas Dynamics - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Douglas Dynamics prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Douglas Dynamics price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Douglas Dynamics.

Douglas Dynamics Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Douglas Dynamics on the next trading day is expected to be 23.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.36, mean absolute percentage error of 0.35, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.63.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Douglas Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Douglas Dynamics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Douglas Dynamics Stock Forecast Pattern

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Douglas Dynamics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Douglas Dynamics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Douglas Dynamics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.30 and 25.88, respectively. We have considered Douglas Dynamics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
23.54
23.59
Expected Value
25.88
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Douglas Dynamics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Douglas Dynamics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1128
MADMean absolute deviation0.3605
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0145
SAESum of the absolute errors21.63
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Douglas Dynamics observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Douglas Dynamics observations.

Predictive Modules for Douglas Dynamics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Douglas Dynamics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
21.2123.5025.79
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
21.1928.8231.11
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
40.0444.0048.84
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.310.310.36
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Douglas Dynamics

For every potential investor in Douglas, whether a beginner or expert, Douglas Dynamics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Douglas Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Douglas. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Douglas Dynamics' price trends.

Douglas Dynamics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Douglas Dynamics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Douglas Dynamics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Douglas Dynamics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Douglas Dynamics Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Douglas Dynamics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Douglas Dynamics' current price.

Douglas Dynamics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Douglas Dynamics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Douglas Dynamics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Douglas Dynamics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Douglas Dynamics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Douglas Dynamics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Douglas Dynamics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Douglas Dynamics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting douglas stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Douglas Stock Analysis

When running Douglas Dynamics' price analysis, check to measure Douglas Dynamics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Douglas Dynamics is operating at the current time. Most of Douglas Dynamics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Douglas Dynamics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Douglas Dynamics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Douglas Dynamics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.