Paramount Resources Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average

POU Stock  CAD 30.50  0.29  0.94%   
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Paramount Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 30.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 48.07. Paramount Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Paramount Resources' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Paramount Resources' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Paramount Resources fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Paramount Resources' Payables Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 15th of December 2024, Receivables Turnover is likely to grow to 12.13, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 67.17. . As of the 15th of December 2024, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 821.8 M, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop about 94.9 M.
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Paramount Resources is based on a synthetically constructed Paramount Resourcesdaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Paramount Resources 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 16th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Paramount Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 30.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.17, mean absolute percentage error of 3.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 48.07.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Paramount Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Paramount Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Paramount Resources Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Paramount ResourcesParamount Resources Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Paramount Resources Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Paramount Resources' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Paramount Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 28.47 and 33.27, respectively. We have considered Paramount Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
30.50
30.87
Expected Value
33.27
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Paramount Resources stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Paramount Resources stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria82.4812
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.0204
MADMean absolute deviation1.1725
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0384
SAESum of the absolute errors48.071
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Paramount Resources 20-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Paramount Resources

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Paramount Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
28.2630.6633.06
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
22.3524.7533.55
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.000.000.00
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Paramount Resources

For every potential investor in Paramount, whether a beginner or expert, Paramount Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Paramount Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Paramount. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Paramount Resources' price trends.

Paramount Resources Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Paramount Resources stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Paramount Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Paramount Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Paramount Resources Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Paramount Resources' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Paramount Resources' current price.

Paramount Resources Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Paramount Resources stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Paramount Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Paramount Resources stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Paramount Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Paramount Resources Risk Indicators

The analysis of Paramount Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Paramount Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting paramount stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Paramount Resources

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Paramount Resources position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Paramount Resources will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Paramount Stock

  0.8ENB-PFV Enbridge Pref 5PairCorr
  0.7ENB-PFC Enbridge Pref 11PairCorr
  0.8ENS E Split CorpPairCorr
  0.95ENS-PA E Split CorpPairCorr

Moving against Paramount Stock

  0.83ARA Aclara ResourcesPairCorr
  0.81CCL-A CCL IndustriesPairCorr
  0.74RCI-A Rogers CommunicationsPairCorr
  0.57SAGE Sage Potash CorpPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Paramount Resources could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Paramount Resources when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Paramount Resources - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Paramount Resources to buy it.
The correlation of Paramount Resources is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Paramount Resources moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Paramount Resources moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Paramount Resources can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Paramount Stock

Paramount Resources financial ratios help investors to determine whether Paramount Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Paramount with respect to the benefits of owning Paramount Resources security.