Rigel Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average

RIGL Stock  USD 27.61  0.27  0.97%   
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Rigel Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 23.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 131.53. Rigel Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Rigel Pharmaceuticals' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Rigel Pharmaceuticals' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Rigel Pharmaceuticals fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Rigel Pharmaceuticals' Inventory Turnover is quite stable compared to the past year. Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to rise to 119.62 this year, although the value of Payables Turnover will most likely fall to 0.95. . The value of Common Stock Shares Outstanding is expected to slide to about 16.5 M. The value of Net Loss is expected to slide to about (70.7 M).
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Rigel Pharmaceuticals is based on a synthetically constructed Rigel Pharmaceuticalsdaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Rigel Pharmaceuticals 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Rigel Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 23.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.21, mean absolute percentage error of 22.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 131.53.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Rigel Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Rigel Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Rigel Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern

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Rigel Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Rigel Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Rigel Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.77 and 30.25, respectively. We have considered Rigel Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
27.61
23.51
Expected Value
30.25
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Rigel Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Rigel Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria84.4605
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -2.6199
MADMean absolute deviation3.208
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1367
SAESum of the absolute errors131.528
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Rigel Pharmaceuticals 20-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Rigel Pharmaceuticals

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Rigel Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.000.006.74
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.000.006.74
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
10.9121.9432.98
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
3.794.174.63
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Rigel Pharmaceuticals. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Rigel Pharmaceuticals' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Rigel Pharmaceuticals' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Rigel Pharmaceuticals.

Other Forecasting Options for Rigel Pharmaceuticals

For every potential investor in Rigel, whether a beginner or expert, Rigel Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Rigel Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Rigel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Rigel Pharmaceuticals' price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

Rigel Pharmaceuticals Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Rigel Pharmaceuticals' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Rigel Pharmaceuticals' current price.

Rigel Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Rigel Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Rigel Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Rigel Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Rigel Pharmaceuticals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Rigel Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators

The analysis of Rigel Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Rigel Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rigel stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether Rigel Pharmaceuticals is a strong investment it is important to analyze Rigel Pharmaceuticals' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Rigel Pharmaceuticals' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Rigel Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Rigel Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Rigel Stock please use our How to buy in Rigel Stock guide.
You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Rigel Pharmaceuticals. If investors know Rigel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Rigel Pharmaceuticals listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.48)
Earnings Share
0.27
Revenue Per Share
8.979
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.966
Return On Assets
0.0461
The market value of Rigel Pharmaceuticals is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Rigel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Rigel Pharmaceuticals' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Rigel Pharmaceuticals' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Rigel Pharmaceuticals' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Rigel Pharmaceuticals' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Rigel Pharmaceuticals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Rigel Pharmaceuticals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Rigel Pharmaceuticals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.