Reitar Logtech Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

RITR Stock   4.20  0.05  1.20%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Reitar Logtech Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 3.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.00. Reitar Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Reitar Logtech's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Reitar Logtech's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Reitar Logtech fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Reitar Logtech's Net Invested Capital is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 12/30/2024, Short and Long Term Debt is likely to grow to about 42.9 M, while Total Assets are likely to drop slightly above 142.6 M.

Reitar Logtech Cash Forecast

Forecasting financial indicators like cash flow involves analysts applying various statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. These tools reveal hidden trends within the Reitar Logtech's financial statements to estimate their effects on upcoming price movements.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2010-12-31
Previous Quarter
6.4 M
Current Value
6.1 M
Quarterly Volatility
9.6 M
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
A naive forecasting model for Reitar Logtech is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Reitar Logtech Holdings value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Reitar Logtech Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 31st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Reitar Logtech Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 3.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51, mean absolute percentage error of 0.41, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Reitar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Reitar Logtech's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Reitar Logtech Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Reitar LogtechReitar Logtech Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Reitar Logtech Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Reitar Logtech's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Reitar Logtech's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.04 and 14.66, respectively. We have considered Reitar Logtech's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4.20
3.02
Expected Value
14.66
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Reitar Logtech stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Reitar Logtech stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.2171
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5081
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1031
SAESum of the absolute errors30.9954
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Reitar Logtech Holdings. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Reitar Logtech. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Reitar Logtech

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Reitar Logtech Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Reitar Logtech's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.183.6915.33
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.203.9515.59
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Reitar Logtech

For every potential investor in Reitar, whether a beginner or expert, Reitar Logtech's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Reitar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Reitar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Reitar Logtech's price trends.

Reitar Logtech Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Reitar Logtech stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Reitar Logtech could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Reitar Logtech by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Reitar Logtech Holdings Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Reitar Logtech's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Reitar Logtech's current price.

Reitar Logtech Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Reitar Logtech stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Reitar Logtech shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Reitar Logtech stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Reitar Logtech Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Reitar Logtech Risk Indicators

The analysis of Reitar Logtech's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Reitar Logtech's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting reitar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Reitar Logtech

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Reitar Logtech position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Reitar Logtech will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Reitar Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Reitar Logtech could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Reitar Logtech when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Reitar Logtech - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Reitar Logtech Holdings to buy it.
The correlation of Reitar Logtech is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Reitar Logtech moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Reitar Logtech Holdings moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Reitar Logtech can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Reitar Stock Analysis

When running Reitar Logtech's price analysis, check to measure Reitar Logtech's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Reitar Logtech is operating at the current time. Most of Reitar Logtech's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Reitar Logtech's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Reitar Logtech's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Reitar Logtech to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.