Ralph Lauren Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| RL Stock | USD 233.41 2.01 0.87% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ralph Lauren Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 235.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 203.89. Ralph Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Ralph Lauren's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ralph Lauren's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ralph Lauren fundamentals over time.
Ralph |
Ralph Lauren Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in the Ralph Lauren's financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 1997-06-30 | Previous Quarter 1.6 B | Current Value 1.4 B | Quarterly Volatility 624 M |
Ralph Lauren Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ralph Lauren Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 235.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.34, mean absolute percentage error of 21.52, and the sum of the absolute errors of 203.89.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ralph Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ralph Lauren's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ralph Lauren Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ralph Lauren | Ralph Lauren Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ralph Lauren Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ralph Lauren's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ralph Lauren's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 233.59 and 237.09, respectively. We have considered Ralph Lauren's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ralph Lauren stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ralph Lauren stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.1793 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.3425 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0164 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 203.8927 |
Predictive Modules for Ralph Lauren
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ralph Lauren Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Ralph Lauren
For every potential investor in Ralph, whether a beginner or expert, Ralph Lauren's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ralph Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ralph. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ralph Lauren's price trends.Ralph Lauren Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ralph Lauren stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ralph Lauren could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ralph Lauren by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ralph Lauren Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ralph Lauren's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ralph Lauren's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Ralph Lauren Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ralph Lauren stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ralph Lauren shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ralph Lauren stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ralph Lauren Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 20624.35 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.4044 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 232.52 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 232.82 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 1.89 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 2.01 |
Ralph Lauren Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ralph Lauren's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ralph Lauren's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ralph stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9164 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.72 | |||
| Variance | 2.97 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.93 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.8398 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.53) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Is Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ralph Lauren. If investors know Ralph will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ralph Lauren listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.055 | Dividend Share 3.15 | Earnings Share 10.48 | Revenue Per Share 105.644 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.057 |
The market value of Ralph Lauren Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ralph that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ralph Lauren's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ralph Lauren's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ralph Lauren's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ralph Lauren's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ralph Lauren's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ralph Lauren is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ralph Lauren's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.