RLJ Lodging Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

RLJ Stock  USD 10.36  0.13  1.24%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of RLJ Lodging Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 10.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.12. RLJ Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although RLJ Lodging's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of RLJ Lodging's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of RLJ Lodging fundamentals over time.
  
Fixed Asset Turnover is expected to hike to 10.22 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to 8.85. . Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is expected to hike to about 21.6 M this year, although the value of Common Stock Shares Outstanding will most likely fall to nearly 147.2 M.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through RLJ Lodging price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

RLJ Lodging Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 15th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of RLJ Lodging Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 10.28 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.12.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict RLJ Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that RLJ Lodging's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

RLJ Lodging Stock Forecast Pattern

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RLJ Lodging Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting RLJ Lodging's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. RLJ Lodging's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.55 and 12.01, respectively. We have considered RLJ Lodging's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
10.36
10.28
Expected Value
12.01
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of RLJ Lodging stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent RLJ Lodging stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.1083
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2971
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0312
SAESum of the absolute errors18.125
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as RLJ Lodging Trust historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for RLJ Lodging

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as RLJ Lodging Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.6910.4212.15
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.3212.4814.21
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
8.899.9310.98
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
12.2913.5014.99
Details

Other Forecasting Options for RLJ Lodging

For every potential investor in RLJ, whether a beginner or expert, RLJ Lodging's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. RLJ Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in RLJ. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying RLJ Lodging's price trends.

RLJ Lodging Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with RLJ Lodging stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of RLJ Lodging could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing RLJ Lodging by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

RLJ Lodging Trust Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of RLJ Lodging's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of RLJ Lodging's current price.

RLJ Lodging Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how RLJ Lodging stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading RLJ Lodging shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying RLJ Lodging stock market strength indicators, traders can identify RLJ Lodging Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

RLJ Lodging Risk Indicators

The analysis of RLJ Lodging's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in RLJ Lodging's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting rlj stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether RLJ Lodging Trust is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if RLJ Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Rlj Lodging Trust Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Rlj Lodging Trust Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of RLJ Lodging to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Hotel & Resort REITs space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of RLJ Lodging. If investors know RLJ will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about RLJ Lodging listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.5
Dividend Share
0.45
Earnings Share
0.29
Revenue Per Share
8.871
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.034
The market value of RLJ Lodging Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of RLJ that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of RLJ Lodging's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is RLJ Lodging's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because RLJ Lodging's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect RLJ Lodging's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between RLJ Lodging's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if RLJ Lodging is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, RLJ Lodging's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.