Ross Stores Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

ROST34 Stock  BRL 466.00  7.90  1.72%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ross Stores on the next trading day is expected to be 466.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 254.45. Ross Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ross Stores stock prices and determine the direction of Ross Stores's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ross Stores' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Ross Stores works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Ross Stores Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ross Stores on the next trading day is expected to be 466.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.31, mean absolute percentage error of 46.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 254.45.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ross Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ross Stores' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ross Stores Stock Forecast Pattern

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Ross Stores Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ross Stores' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ross Stores' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 464.37 and 467.63, respectively. We have considered Ross Stores' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
466.00
464.37
Downside
466.00
Expected Value
467.63
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ross Stores stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ross Stores stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.7642
MADMean absolute deviation4.3127
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0104
SAESum of the absolute errors254.45
When Ross Stores prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Ross Stores trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Ross Stores observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Ross Stores

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ross Stores. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
464.37466.00467.63
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
459.71461.34512.60
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
421.11443.86466.60
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ross Stores. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ross Stores' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ross Stores' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Ross Stores.

Other Forecasting Options for Ross Stores

For every potential investor in Ross, whether a beginner or expert, Ross Stores' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ross Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ross. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ross Stores' price trends.

Ross Stores Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ross Stores stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ross Stores could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ross Stores by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ross Stores Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ross Stores' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ross Stores' current price.

Ross Stores Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ross Stores stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ross Stores shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ross Stores stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ross Stores entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ross Stores Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ross Stores' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ross Stores' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ross stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Ross Stock

When determining whether Ross Stores is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Ross Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Ross Stores Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Ross Stores Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ross Stores to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Ross Stock refer to our How to Trade Ross Stock guide.
You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ross Stores' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ross Stores is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ross Stores' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.