Sage Therapeutic Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SAGE Stock | USD 5.00 0.03 0.60% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sage Therapeutic on the next trading day is expected to be 3.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.33. Sage Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Sage Therapeutic stock prices and determine the direction of Sage Therapeutic's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Sage Therapeutic's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Sage |
Sage Therapeutic Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Sage Therapeutic's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2012-12-31 | Previous Quarter 101.2 M | Current Value 99.6 M | Quarterly Volatility 265.2 M |
Sage Therapeutic Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 21st of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sage Therapeutic on the next trading day is expected to be 3.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34, mean absolute percentage error of 0.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sage Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sage Therapeutic's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sage Therapeutic Stock Forecast Pattern
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Sage Therapeutic Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sage Therapeutic's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sage Therapeutic's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.05 and 8.62, respectively. We have considered Sage Therapeutic's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sage Therapeutic stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sage Therapeutic stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.2957 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.344 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0543 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.3287 |
Predictive Modules for Sage Therapeutic
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sage Therapeutic. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Sage Therapeutic
For every potential investor in Sage, whether a beginner or expert, Sage Therapeutic's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sage Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sage. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sage Therapeutic's price trends.View Sage Therapeutic Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sage Therapeutic Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Sage Therapeutic's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Sage Therapeutic's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Sage Therapeutic Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sage Therapeutic stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sage Therapeutic shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sage Therapeutic stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sage Therapeutic entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 45290.39 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.15) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 5.06 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 5.04 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.07) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.03) |
Sage Therapeutic Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sage Therapeutic's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sage Therapeutic's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sage stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.69 | |||
| Variance | 21.99 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Sage Therapeutic is a strong investment it is important to analyze Sage Therapeutic's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Sage Therapeutic's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Sage Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sage Therapeutic to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Sage Stock refer to our How to Trade Sage Stock guide.You can also try the FinTech Suite module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Sage Therapeutic. If investors know Sage will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Sage Therapeutic listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (5.57) | Revenue Per Share 1.76 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 3.371 | Return On Assets (0.30) | Return On Equity (0.49) |
The market value of Sage Therapeutic is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Sage that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Sage Therapeutic's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Sage Therapeutic's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Sage Therapeutic's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Sage Therapeutic's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Sage Therapeutic's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Sage Therapeutic is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Sage Therapeutic's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.