Sentinel Balanced Mutual Fund Triple Exponential Smoothing | SEBLX- Macroaxis

Sentinel Balanced Mutual Fund Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

SEBLX Fund  USD 28.20  0.21  0.75%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sentinel Balanced Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 28.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.90. Sentinel Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Sentinel Balanced - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Sentinel Balanced prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Sentinel Balanced price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Sentinel Balanced.

Sentinel Balanced Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sentinel Balanced Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 28.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.90.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sentinel Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sentinel Balanced's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Sentinel Balanced Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Oct 7Oct 15Oct 23Oct 31Nov 8Nov 18Nov 26Dec 5Dec 13Dec 2227.828.028.228.428.628.829.0
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Sentinel Balanced Sentinel Balanced forecast
Backtest Sentinel BalancedSentinel Balanced Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Sentinel Balanced Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Sentinel Balanced's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sentinel Balanced's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.73 and 28.68, respectively. We have considered Sentinel Balanced's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
28.20
28.20
Expected Value
28.68
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sentinel Balanced mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sentinel Balanced mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0228
MADMean absolute deviation0.1001
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0035
SAESum of the absolute errors5.9045
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Sentinel Balanced observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Sentinel Balanced Fund observations.

Predictive Modules for Sentinel Balanced

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sentinel Balanced. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
27.7228.2028.68
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
27.7628.2428.72
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
28.0328.6129.19
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Sentinel Balanced

For every potential investor in Sentinel, whether a beginner or expert, Sentinel Balanced's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sentinel Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sentinel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sentinel Balanced's price trends.

Sentinel Balanced Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sentinel Balanced mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sentinel Balanced could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sentinel Balanced by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Sentinel Balanced Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Sentinel Balanced's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Sentinel Balanced's current price.

Sentinel Balanced Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sentinel Balanced mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sentinel Balanced shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sentinel Balanced mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Sentinel Balanced Fund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Sentinel Balanced Risk Indicators

The analysis of Sentinel Balanced's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sentinel Balanced's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sentinel mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Sentinel Mutual Fund

Sentinel Balanced financial ratios help investors to determine whether Sentinel Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Sentinel with respect to the benefits of owning Sentinel Balanced security.
Equity Search
Search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets
Alpha Finder
Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk
Portfolio Analyzer
Portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine
Theme Ratings
Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance