Saga Communications Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| SGA Stock | USD 11.92 0.11 0.91% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Saga Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 11.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.81. Saga Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Saga Communications stock prices and determine the direction of Saga Communications's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Saga Communications' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Saga |
Saga Communications Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Saga Communications on the next trading day is expected to be 11.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.81.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Saga Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Saga Communications' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Saga Communications Stock Forecast Pattern
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Saga Communications Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Saga Communications' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Saga Communications' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.16 and 13.62, respectively. We have considered Saga Communications' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Saga Communications stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Saga Communications stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0078 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1833 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0139 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.8125 |
Predictive Modules for Saga Communications
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Saga Communications. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Saga Communications
For every potential investor in Saga, whether a beginner or expert, Saga Communications' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Saga Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Saga. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Saga Communications' price trends.Saga Communications Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Saga Communications stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Saga Communications could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Saga Communications by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Saga Communications Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Saga Communications' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Saga Communications' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Saga Communications Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Saga Communications stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Saga Communications shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Saga Communications stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Saga Communications entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.92 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.92 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.06) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.11) |
Saga Communications Risk Indicators
The analysis of Saga Communications' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Saga Communications' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting saga stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.71 | |||
| Variance | 2.94 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Saga Communications offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Saga Communications' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Saga Communications Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Saga Communications Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Saga Communications to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Saga Stock refer to our How to Trade Saga Stock guide.You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Is Broadcasting space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Saga Communications. If investors know Saga will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Saga Communications listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.55) | Dividend Share 1.6 | Earnings Share 0.75 | Revenue Per Share 18.219 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.04) |
The market value of Saga Communications is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Saga that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Saga Communications' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Saga Communications' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Saga Communications' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Saga Communications' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Saga Communications' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Saga Communications is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Saga Communications' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.