Sondotcnica Engenharia Preferred Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

SOND5 Preferred Stock  BRL 39.50  0.50  1.25%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sondotcnica Engenharia de on the next trading day is expected to be 42.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88 and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.83. Sondotcnica Preferred Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Sondotcnica Engenharia is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Sondotcnica Engenharia de value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Sondotcnica Engenharia Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sondotcnica Engenharia de on the next trading day is expected to be 42.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.88, mean absolute percentage error of 1.55, and the sum of the absolute errors of 53.83.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sondotcnica Preferred Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sondotcnica Engenharia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Sondotcnica Engenharia Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Sondotcnica EngenhariaSondotcnica Engenharia Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Sondotcnica Engenharia Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Sondotcnica Engenharia's Preferred Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sondotcnica Engenharia's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 40.00 and 44.44, respectively. We have considered Sondotcnica Engenharia's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
39.50
42.22
Expected Value
44.44
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sondotcnica Engenharia preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sondotcnica Engenharia preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.546
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.8825
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0199
SAESum of the absolute errors53.8318
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Sondotcnica Engenharia de. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Sondotcnica Engenharia. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Sondotcnica Engenharia

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sondotcnica Engenharia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
37.3039.5041.70
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
33.7435.9543.45
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Sondotcnica Engenharia. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Sondotcnica Engenharia's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Sondotcnica Engenharia's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Sondotcnica Engenharia.

Other Forecasting Options for Sondotcnica Engenharia

For every potential investor in Sondotcnica, whether a beginner or expert, Sondotcnica Engenharia's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sondotcnica Preferred Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sondotcnica. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sondotcnica Engenharia's price trends.

Sondotcnica Engenharia Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sondotcnica Engenharia preferred stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sondotcnica Engenharia could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sondotcnica Engenharia by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Sondotcnica Engenharia Technical and Predictive Analytics

The preferred stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Sondotcnica Engenharia's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Sondotcnica Engenharia's current price.

Sondotcnica Engenharia Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sondotcnica Engenharia preferred stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sondotcnica Engenharia shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sondotcnica Engenharia preferred stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Sondotcnica Engenharia de entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Sondotcnica Engenharia Risk Indicators

The analysis of Sondotcnica Engenharia's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sondotcnica Engenharia's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sondotcnica preferred stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Sondotcnica Preferred Stock Analysis

When running Sondotcnica Engenharia's price analysis, check to measure Sondotcnica Engenharia's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Sondotcnica Engenharia is operating at the current time. Most of Sondotcnica Engenharia's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Sondotcnica Engenharia's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Sondotcnica Engenharia's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Sondotcnica Engenharia to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.