SP500 VIX Index Forecast - Polynomial Regression

SPVIXETR   18,853  914.87  4.63%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of SP500 VIX Futures on the next trading day is expected to be 20,833 with a mean absolute deviation of 517.99 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31,597. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast SP500 VIX's index prices and determine the direction of SP500 VIX Futures's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading.
SP500 VIX polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for SP500 VIX Futures as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

SP500 VIX Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of SP500 VIX Futures on the next trading day is expected to be 20,833 with a mean absolute deviation of 517.99, mean absolute percentage error of 588,207, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31,597.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SP500 Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SP500 VIX's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

SP500 VIX Index Forecast Pattern

SP500 VIX Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting SP500 VIX's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SP500 VIX's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 20,831 and 20,836, respectively. We have considered SP500 VIX's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
18,853
20,831
Downside
20,833
Expected Value
20,836
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SP500 VIX index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SP500 VIX index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria131.3953
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation517.9917
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0247
SAESum of the absolute errors31597.4931
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the SP500 VIX historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for SP500 VIX

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SP500 VIX Futures. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of SP500 VIX's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.

Other Forecasting Options for SP500 VIX

For every potential investor in SP500, whether a beginner or expert, SP500 VIX's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SP500 Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SP500. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SP500 VIX's price trends.

SP500 VIX Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SP500 VIX index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SP500 VIX could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SP500 VIX by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

SP500 VIX Futures Technical and Predictive Analytics

The index market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of SP500 VIX's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of SP500 VIX's current price.

SP500 VIX Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SP500 VIX index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SP500 VIX shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SP500 VIX index market strength indicators, traders can identify SP500 VIX Futures entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

SP500 VIX Risk Indicators

The analysis of SP500 VIX's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SP500 VIX's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sp500 index prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.