Sparinv SICAV Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

SSIEGVEURR  EUR 297.00  2.50  0.83%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sparinv SICAV on the next trading day is expected to be 296.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 110.68. Sparinv Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Sparinv SICAV stock prices and determine the direction of Sparinv SICAV's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Sparinv SICAV's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Sparinv SICAV is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Sparinv SICAV value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Sparinv SICAV Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 7th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sparinv SICAV on the next trading day is expected to be 296.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.79, mean absolute percentage error of 5.58, and the sum of the absolute errors of 110.68.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sparinv Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sparinv SICAV's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Sparinv SICAV Fund Forecast Pattern

Sparinv SICAV Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Sparinv SICAV's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sparinv SICAV's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 295.65 and 297.14, respectively. We have considered Sparinv SICAV's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
297.00
295.65
Downside
296.40
Expected Value
297.14
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sparinv SICAV fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sparinv SICAV fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.6667
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.7852
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0063
SAESum of the absolute errors110.6802
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Sparinv SICAV. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Sparinv SICAV. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Sparinv SICAV

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sparinv SICAV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
298.77299.50300.23
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
275.82276.55329.45
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
23.5924.6325.68
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Sparinv SICAV. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Sparinv SICAV's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Sparinv SICAV's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Sparinv SICAV.

Other Forecasting Options for Sparinv SICAV

For every potential investor in Sparinv, whether a beginner or expert, Sparinv SICAV's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sparinv Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sparinv. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sparinv SICAV's price trends.

Sparinv SICAV Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sparinv SICAV fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sparinv SICAV could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sparinv SICAV by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Sparinv SICAV Technical and Predictive Analytics

The fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Sparinv SICAV's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Sparinv SICAV's current price.

Sparinv SICAV Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sparinv SICAV fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sparinv SICAV shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sparinv SICAV fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Sparinv SICAV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Sparinv SICAV Risk Indicators

The analysis of Sparinv SICAV's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sparinv SICAV's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sparinv fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Other Information on Investing in Sparinv Fund

Sparinv SICAV financial ratios help investors to determine whether Sparinv Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Sparinv with respect to the benefits of owning Sparinv SICAV security.
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