Thornburg Developing Mutual Fund Forecast - Polynomial Regression

THDRX Fund  USD 22.82  0.11  0.48%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Thornburg Developing World on the next trading day is expected to be 22.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.73. Thornburg Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Thornburg Developing polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Thornburg Developing World as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Thornburg Developing Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Thornburg Developing World on the next trading day is expected to be 22.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.73.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Thornburg Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Thornburg Developing's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Thornburg Developing Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Thornburg Developing Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Thornburg Developing's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Thornburg Developing's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.89 and 23.50, respectively. We have considered Thornburg Developing's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
22.82
22.70
Expected Value
23.50
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Thornburg Developing mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Thornburg Developing mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.049
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1892
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0082
SAESum of the absolute errors11.7318
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Thornburg Developing historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Thornburg Developing

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Thornburg Developing. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
21.1821.9822.78
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
21.8422.6423.44
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
22.4622.6022.73
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Thornburg Developing

For every potential investor in Thornburg, whether a beginner or expert, Thornburg Developing's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Thornburg Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Thornburg. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Thornburg Developing's price trends.

Thornburg Developing Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Thornburg Developing mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Thornburg Developing could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Thornburg Developing by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Thornburg Developing Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Thornburg Developing's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Thornburg Developing's current price.

Thornburg Developing Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Thornburg Developing mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Thornburg Developing shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Thornburg Developing mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Thornburg Developing World entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Thornburg Developing Risk Indicators

The analysis of Thornburg Developing's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Thornburg Developing's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting thornburg mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Thornburg Mutual Fund

Thornburg Developing financial ratios help investors to determine whether Thornburg Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Thornburg with respect to the benefits of owning Thornburg Developing security.
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