Thaire Life Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

THREL Stock  THB 1.60  0.02  1.27%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Thaire Life Assurance on the next trading day is expected to be 1.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.10. Thaire Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Thaire Life stock prices and determine the direction of Thaire Life Assurance's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Thaire Life's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Thaire Life - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Thaire Life prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Thaire Life price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Thaire Life Assurance.

Thaire Life Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Thaire Life Assurance on the next trading day is expected to be 1.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0006, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.10.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Thaire Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Thaire Life's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Thaire Life Stock Forecast Pattern

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Thaire Life Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Thaire Life's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Thaire Life's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.36 and 2.83, respectively. We have considered Thaire Life's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.60
1.59
Expected Value
2.83
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Thaire Life stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Thaire Life stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0035
MADMean absolute deviation0.0187
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0108
SAESum of the absolute errors1.1036
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Thaire Life observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Thaire Life Assurance observations.

Predictive Modules for Thaire Life

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Thaire Life Assurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.371.602.83
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.441.672.90
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Thaire Life

For every potential investor in Thaire, whether a beginner or expert, Thaire Life's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Thaire Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Thaire. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Thaire Life's price trends.

Thaire Life Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Thaire Life stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Thaire Life could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Thaire Life by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Thaire Life Assurance Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Thaire Life's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Thaire Life's current price.

Thaire Life Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Thaire Life stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Thaire Life shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Thaire Life stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Thaire Life Assurance entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Thaire Life Risk Indicators

The analysis of Thaire Life's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Thaire Life's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting thaire stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Thaire Stock

Thaire Life financial ratios help investors to determine whether Thaire Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Thaire with respect to the benefits of owning Thaire Life security.