Tirta Mahakam Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

TIRT Stock  IDR 57.00  5.00  9.62%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Tirta Mahakam Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 50.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 179.75. Tirta Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Tirta Mahakam Resources is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Tirta Mahakam 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Tirta Mahakam Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 50.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.15, mean absolute percentage error of 15.92, and the sum of the absolute errors of 179.75.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Tirta Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Tirta Mahakam's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Tirta Mahakam Stock Forecast Pattern

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Tirta Mahakam Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Tirta Mahakam's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Tirta Mahakam's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 43.12 and 57.38, respectively. We have considered Tirta Mahakam's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
57.00
50.25
Expected Value
57.38
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Tirta Mahakam stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Tirta Mahakam stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.5267
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.8026
MADMean absolute deviation3.1535
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1028
SAESum of the absolute errors179.75
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Tirta Mahakam. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Tirta Mahakam Resources and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Tirta Mahakam

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Tirta Mahakam Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
44.8752.0059.13
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
29.6236.7557.20
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
39.1246.6754.21
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Tirta Mahakam

For every potential investor in Tirta, whether a beginner or expert, Tirta Mahakam's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Tirta Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Tirta. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Tirta Mahakam's price trends.

Tirta Mahakam Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Tirta Mahakam stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Tirta Mahakam could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Tirta Mahakam by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Tirta Mahakam Resources Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Tirta Mahakam's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Tirta Mahakam's current price.

Tirta Mahakam Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Tirta Mahakam stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Tirta Mahakam shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Tirta Mahakam stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Tirta Mahakam Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Tirta Mahakam Risk Indicators

The analysis of Tirta Mahakam's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Tirta Mahakam's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting tirta stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Tirta Stock

Tirta Mahakam financial ratios help investors to determine whether Tirta Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Tirta with respect to the benefits of owning Tirta Mahakam security.