Toya SA Stock Forecast - 8 Period Moving Average

TOA Stock   7.65  0.03  0.39%   
The 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Toya SA on the next trading day is expected to be 7.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.48. Toya Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
An 8-period moving average forecast model for Toya SA is based on an artificially constructed time series of Toya SA daily prices in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 8 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Toya SA 8 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 10th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 8 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Toya SA on the next trading day is expected to be 7.67 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.48.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Toya Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Toya SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Toya SA Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Toya SAToya SA Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Toya SA Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Toya SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Toya SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.07 and 9.26, respectively. We have considered Toya SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
7.65
7.67
Expected Value
9.26
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 8 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Toya SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Toya SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria100.1606
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0184
MADMean absolute deviation0.1411
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0182
SAESum of the absolute errors7.4775
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Toya SA 8-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Toya SA

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Toya SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Toya SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
6.097.689.27
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6.077.659.24
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Toya SA

For every potential investor in Toya, whether a beginner or expert, Toya SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Toya Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Toya. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Toya SA's price trends.

Toya SA Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Toya SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Toya SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Toya SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Toya SA Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Toya SA's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Toya SA's current price.

Toya SA Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Toya SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Toya SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Toya SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Toya SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Toya SA Risk Indicators

The analysis of Toya SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Toya SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting toya stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Toya SA

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Toya SA position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Toya SA will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Toya SA could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Toya SA when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Toya SA - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Toya SA to buy it.
The correlation of Toya SA is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Toya SA moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Toya SA moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Toya SA can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Toya Stock Analysis

When running Toya SA's price analysis, check to measure Toya SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Toya SA is operating at the current time. Most of Toya SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Toya SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Toya SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Toya SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.