TrustCo Bank Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

TRST Stock  USD 36.19  0.05  0.14%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of TrustCo Bank Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 36.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.75. TrustCo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to gain to 4.70 in 2024. Asset Turnover is likely to gain to 0.04 in 2024. Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 16.6 M in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop to about 51.3 M in 2024.
A four-period moving average forecast model for TrustCo Bank Corp is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

TrustCo Bank 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 11th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of TrustCo Bank Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 36.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62, mean absolute percentage error of 0.84, and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.75.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict TrustCo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that TrustCo Bank's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

TrustCo Bank Stock Forecast Pattern

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TrustCo Bank Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting TrustCo Bank's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. TrustCo Bank's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 33.95 and 38.45, respectively. We have considered TrustCo Bank's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
36.19
36.20
Expected Value
38.45
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of TrustCo Bank stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent TrustCo Bank stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.426
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1225
MADMean absolute deviation0.6165
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0179
SAESum of the absolute errors35.755
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of TrustCo Bank. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for TrustCo Bank Corp and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for TrustCo Bank

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as TrustCo Bank Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of TrustCo Bank's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
33.9236.1438.36
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
28.4630.6839.81
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
35.7136.7037.68
Details
0 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
23.6626.0028.86
Details

Other Forecasting Options for TrustCo Bank

For every potential investor in TrustCo, whether a beginner or expert, TrustCo Bank's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. TrustCo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in TrustCo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying TrustCo Bank's price trends.

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 Risk & Return  Correlation

TrustCo Bank Corp Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of TrustCo Bank's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of TrustCo Bank's current price.

TrustCo Bank Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how TrustCo Bank stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading TrustCo Bank shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying TrustCo Bank stock market strength indicators, traders can identify TrustCo Bank Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

TrustCo Bank Risk Indicators

The analysis of TrustCo Bank's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in TrustCo Bank's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting trustco stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

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Additional Tools for TrustCo Stock Analysis

When running TrustCo Bank's price analysis, check to measure TrustCo Bank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy TrustCo Bank is operating at the current time. Most of TrustCo Bank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of TrustCo Bank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move TrustCo Bank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of TrustCo Bank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.