United Community Preferred Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

UCBIODelisted Preferred Stock  USD 24.34  0.01  0.04%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of United Community Banks on the next trading day is expected to be 24.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.14. United Preferred Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for United Community is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of United Community Banks value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

United Community Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of United Community Banks on the next trading day is expected to be 24.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.14.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict United Preferred Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that United Community's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

United Community Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest United CommunityUnited Community Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of United Community preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent United Community preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.2085
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1991
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0083
SAESum of the absolute errors12.1425
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of United Community Banks. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict United Community. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for United Community

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United Community Banks. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
23.6024.3425.08
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
19.8620.6026.77
Details

United Community Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with United Community preferred stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of United Community could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing United Community by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

United Community Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how United Community preferred stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading United Community shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying United Community preferred stock market strength indicators, traders can identify United Community Banks entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

United Community Risk Indicators

The analysis of United Community's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in United Community's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting united preferred stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with United Community

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if United Community position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in United Community will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against United Preferred Stock

  0.56PPERF Bank Mandiri PerseroPairCorr
  0.51BNPQY BNP Paribas SAPairCorr
  0.5PPERY Bank Mandiri PerseroPairCorr
  0.48BKRKY Bank RakyatPairCorr
  0.43TLK Telkom Indonesia TbkPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to United Community could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace United Community when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back United Community - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling United Community Banks to buy it.
The correlation of United Community is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as United Community moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if United Community Banks moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for United Community can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in gross domestic product.
You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .

Other Consideration for investing in United Preferred Stock

If you are still planning to invest in United Community Banks check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the United Community's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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