Ultrashort Small Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

UCPIX Fund  USD 46.97  0.93  1.94%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ultrashort Small Cap Profund on the next trading day is expected to be 46.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83 and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.91. Ultrashort Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Ultrashort Small simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Ultrashort Small Cap Profund are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Ultrashort Small Cap prices get older.

Ultrashort Small Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ultrashort Small Cap Profund on the next trading day is expected to be 46.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.83, mean absolute percentage error of 1.52, and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.91.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ultrashort Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ultrashort Small's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ultrashort Small Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Oct 9Oct 17Oct 25Nov 4Nov 12Nov 20Nov 29Dec 9Dec 17Dec 26404244464850
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Ultrashort Small Cap Ultrashort Small Cap forecast
Backtest Ultrashort SmallUltrashort Small Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Ultrashort Small Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ultrashort Small's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ultrashort Small's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 44.32 and 49.62, respectively. We have considered Ultrashort Small's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
46.97
46.97
Expected Value
49.62
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ultrashort Small mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ultrashort Small mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.6881
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0522
MADMean absolute deviation0.8318
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0184
SAESum of the absolute errors49.91
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Ultrashort Small Cap Profund forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Ultrashort Small observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Ultrashort Small

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ultrashort Small Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
44.3246.9749.62
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
40.2742.9251.67
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
16.5745.1873.78
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Ultrashort Small

For every potential investor in Ultrashort, whether a beginner or expert, Ultrashort Small's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ultrashort Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ultrashort. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ultrashort Small's price trends.

Ultrashort Small Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ultrashort Small mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ultrashort Small could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ultrashort Small by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ultrashort Small Cap Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ultrashort Small's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ultrashort Small's current price.

Ultrashort Small Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ultrashort Small mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ultrashort Small shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ultrashort Small mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Ultrashort Small Cap Profund entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ultrashort Small Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ultrashort Small's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ultrashort Small's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ultrashort mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Ultrashort Mutual Fund

Ultrashort Small financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ultrashort Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ultrashort with respect to the benefits of owning Ultrashort Small security.
Instant Ratings
Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Funds Screener
Find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges
Analyst Advice
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
News Freq…Investor S…