Ufuk Yatirim Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

UFUK Stock  TRY 635.00  26.00  3.93%   
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ufuk Yatirim Yonetim on the next trading day is expected to be 640.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 14.73 and the sum of the absolute errors of 868.85. Ufuk Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Ufuk Yatirim works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Ufuk Yatirim Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ufuk Yatirim Yonetim on the next trading day is expected to be 640.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 14.73, mean absolute percentage error of 333.31, and the sum of the absolute errors of 868.85.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ufuk Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ufuk Yatirim's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ufuk Yatirim Stock Forecast Pattern

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Ufuk Yatirim Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ufuk Yatirim's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ufuk Yatirim's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 636.98 and 643.62, respectively. We have considered Ufuk Yatirim's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
635.00
636.98
Downside
640.30
Expected Value
643.62
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ufuk Yatirim stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ufuk Yatirim stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 1.9819
MADMean absolute deviation14.7262
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.029
SAESum of the absolute errors868.8456
When Ufuk Yatirim Yonetim prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Ufuk Yatirim Yonetim trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Ufuk Yatirim observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Ufuk Yatirim

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ufuk Yatirim Yonetim. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
631.68635.00638.32
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
491.02494.34698.50
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Ufuk Yatirim

For every potential investor in Ufuk, whether a beginner or expert, Ufuk Yatirim's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ufuk Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ufuk. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ufuk Yatirim's price trends.

Ufuk Yatirim Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ufuk Yatirim stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ufuk Yatirim could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ufuk Yatirim by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ufuk Yatirim Yonetim Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ufuk Yatirim's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ufuk Yatirim's current price.

Ufuk Yatirim Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ufuk Yatirim stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ufuk Yatirim shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ufuk Yatirim stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ufuk Yatirim Yonetim entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ufuk Yatirim Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ufuk Yatirim's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ufuk Yatirim's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ufuk stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Additional Tools for Ufuk Stock Analysis

When running Ufuk Yatirim's price analysis, check to measure Ufuk Yatirim's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ufuk Yatirim is operating at the current time. Most of Ufuk Yatirim's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ufuk Yatirim's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ufuk Yatirim's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ufuk Yatirim to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.