Ultrapar Participacoes Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

UGP Stock  USD 2.66  0.02  0.76%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ultrapar Participacoes SA on the next trading day is expected to be 2.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.00. Ultrapar Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Ultrapar Participacoes' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Ultrapar Participacoes' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Ultrapar Participacoes fundamentals over time.
  
At this time, Ultrapar Participacoes' Payables Turnover is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 12/26/2024, Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 16.34, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 20.42. . As of 12/26/2024, Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to grow to about 2.2 B, while Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop slightly above 1 B.
Ultrapar Participacoes simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Ultrapar Participacoes SA are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Ultrapar Participacoes prices get older.

Ultrapar Participacoes Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ultrapar Participacoes SA on the next trading day is expected to be 2.66 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ultrapar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ultrapar Participacoes' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Ultrapar Participacoes Stock Forecast Pattern

JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Oct 9Oct 17Oct 25Nov 4Nov 12Nov 20Nov 29Dec 9Dec 17Dec 262.53.03.54.0
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Ultrapar Participacoes Ultrapar Participacoes forecast
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Ultrapar Participacoes Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Ultrapar Participacoes' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ultrapar Participacoes' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.08 and 5.24, respectively. We have considered Ultrapar Participacoes' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
2.66
2.66
Expected Value
5.24
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ultrapar Participacoes stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ultrapar Participacoes stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.3742
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0246
MADMean absolute deviation0.0667
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0205
SAESum of the absolute errors4.0038
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Ultrapar Participacoes SA forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Ultrapar Participacoes observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Ultrapar Participacoes

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ultrapar Participacoes. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.092.685.27
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.513.105.69
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
3.373.704.11
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.080.080.08
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ultrapar Participacoes. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ultrapar Participacoes' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ultrapar Participacoes' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Ultrapar Participacoes.

Other Forecasting Options for Ultrapar Participacoes

For every potential investor in Ultrapar, whether a beginner or expert, Ultrapar Participacoes' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ultrapar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ultrapar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ultrapar Participacoes' price trends.

Ultrapar Participacoes Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ultrapar Participacoes stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ultrapar Participacoes could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ultrapar Participacoes by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Ultrapar Participacoes Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Ultrapar Participacoes' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Ultrapar Participacoes' current price.

Ultrapar Participacoes Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ultrapar Participacoes stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ultrapar Participacoes shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ultrapar Participacoes stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ultrapar Participacoes SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Ultrapar Participacoes Risk Indicators

The analysis of Ultrapar Participacoes' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ultrapar Participacoes' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ultrapar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Ultrapar Participacoes

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Ultrapar Participacoes position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Ultrapar Participacoes will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Ultrapar Stock

  0.82DINO HF Sinclair CorpPairCorr

Moving against Ultrapar Stock

  0.9BDCO Blue Dolphin EnergyPairCorr
  0.87AE Adams Resources EnergyPairCorr
  0.54CAPL Crossamerica PartnersPairCorr
  0.35SUN Sunoco LPPairCorr
  0.35AMTX AemetisPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Ultrapar Participacoes could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Ultrapar Participacoes when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Ultrapar Participacoes - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Ultrapar Participacoes SA to buy it.
The correlation of Ultrapar Participacoes is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Ultrapar Participacoes moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Ultrapar Participacoes moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Ultrapar Participacoes can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Ultrapar Stock Analysis

When running Ultrapar Participacoes' price analysis, check to measure Ultrapar Participacoes' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ultrapar Participacoes is operating at the current time. Most of Ultrapar Participacoes' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ultrapar Participacoes' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ultrapar Participacoes' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ultrapar Participacoes to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.