United Parcel Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

UPSS34 Stock  BRL 48.44  0.71  1.44%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of United Parcel Service on the next trading day is expected to be 49.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.36. United Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast United Parcel stock prices and determine the direction of United Parcel Service's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of United Parcel's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for United Parcel is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of United Parcel Service value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

United Parcel Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of United Parcel Service on the next trading day is expected to be 49.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.65, mean absolute percentage error of 0.59, and the sum of the absolute errors of 39.36.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict United Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that United Parcel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

United Parcel Stock Forecast Pattern

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United Parcel Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting United Parcel's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. United Parcel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 47.82 and 50.93, respectively. We have considered United Parcel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
48.44
49.37
Expected Value
50.93
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of United Parcel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent United Parcel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.5852
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.6453
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0137
SAESum of the absolute errors39.3637
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of United Parcel Service. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict United Parcel. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for United Parcel

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as United Parcel Service. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
47.6249.1550.68
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
39.0140.5454.07
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
48.1849.2150.25
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as United Parcel. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against United Parcel's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, United Parcel's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in United Parcel Service.

Other Forecasting Options for United Parcel

For every potential investor in United, whether a beginner or expert, United Parcel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. United Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in United. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying United Parcel's price trends.

United Parcel Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with United Parcel stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of United Parcel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing United Parcel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

United Parcel Service Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of United Parcel's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of United Parcel's current price.

United Parcel Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how United Parcel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading United Parcel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying United Parcel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify United Parcel Service entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

United Parcel Risk Indicators

The analysis of United Parcel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in United Parcel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting united stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Information and Resources on Investing in United Stock

When determining whether United Parcel Service is a strong investment it is important to analyze United Parcel's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact United Parcel's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding United Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of United Parcel to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Please note, there is a significant difference between United Parcel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if United Parcel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, United Parcel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.