MOSAIC Forecast - Naive Prediction

61945CAE3   92.38  6.93  6.98%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of MOSAIC NEW 5625 on the next trading day is expected to be 92.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 95.65. MOSAIC Bond Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast MOSAIC stock prices and determine the direction of MOSAIC NEW 5625's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of MOSAIC's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for MOSAIC is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of MOSAIC NEW 5625 value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

MOSAIC Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of MOSAIC NEW 5625 on the next trading day is expected to be 92.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.54, mean absolute percentage error of 17.91, and the sum of the absolute errors of 95.65.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MOSAIC Bond prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MOSAIC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

MOSAIC Bond Forecast Pattern

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MOSAIC Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting MOSAIC's Bond value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MOSAIC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 91.46 and 94.40, respectively. We have considered MOSAIC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
92.38
92.93
Expected Value
94.40
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MOSAIC bond data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MOSAIC bond, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.8339
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.5428
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0147
SAESum of the absolute errors95.6542
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of MOSAIC NEW 5625. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict MOSAIC. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for MOSAIC

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MOSAIC NEW 5625. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
90.9192.3893.85
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
83.7985.26101.62
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
88.4094.1299.85
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as MOSAIC. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against MOSAIC's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, MOSAIC's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in MOSAIC NEW 5625.

Other Forecasting Options for MOSAIC

For every potential investor in MOSAIC, whether a beginner or expert, MOSAIC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MOSAIC Bond price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MOSAIC. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MOSAIC's price trends.

MOSAIC Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MOSAIC bond to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MOSAIC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MOSAIC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

MOSAIC NEW 5625 Technical and Predictive Analytics

The bond market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of MOSAIC's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of MOSAIC's current price.

MOSAIC Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MOSAIC bond reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MOSAIC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MOSAIC bond market strength indicators, traders can identify MOSAIC NEW 5625 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

MOSAIC Risk Indicators

The analysis of MOSAIC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MOSAIC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mosaic bond prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios. One of the essential factors to consider when estimating the risk of default for a bond instrument is its duration, which is the bond's price sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The duration of MOSAIC NEW 5625 bond is primarily affected by its yield, coupon rate, and time to maturity. The duration of a bond will be higher the lower its coupon, lower its yield, and longer the time left to maturity.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in MOSAIC Bond

MOSAIC financial ratios help investors to determine whether MOSAIC Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in MOSAIC with respect to the benefits of owning MOSAIC security.