Var Energi Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

VAR Stock   36.19  0.41  1.12%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Var Energi ASA on the next trading day is expected to be 36.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.71. Var Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Var Energi simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Var Energi ASA are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Var Energi ASA prices get older.

Var Energi Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Var Energi ASA on the next trading day is expected to be 36.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.48, mean absolute percentage error of 0.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.71.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Var Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Var Energi's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Var Energi Stock Forecast Pattern

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Var Energi Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Var Energi's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Var Energi's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 34.37 and 38.01, respectively. We have considered Var Energi's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
36.19
36.19
Expected Value
38.01
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Var Energi stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Var Energi stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.3276
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0782
MADMean absolute deviation0.4785
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0141
SAESum of the absolute errors28.71
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Var Energi ASA forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Var Energi observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Var Energi

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Var Energi ASA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
34.7836.6038.42
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
33.5135.3337.15
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
35.7036.2036.70
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Var Energi

For every potential investor in Var, whether a beginner or expert, Var Energi's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Var Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Var. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Var Energi's price trends.

Var Energi Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Var Energi stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Var Energi could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Var Energi by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Var Energi ASA Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Var Energi's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Var Energi's current price.

Var Energi Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Var Energi stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Var Energi shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Var Energi stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Var Energi ASA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Var Energi Risk Indicators

The analysis of Var Energi's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Var Energi's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting var stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Var Stock

Var Energi financial ratios help investors to determine whether Var Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Var with respect to the benefits of owning Var Energi security.