Virtus International Mutual Fund Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average

VISAX Fund  USD 19.52  0.07  0.36%   
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Virtus International Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 19.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.15. Virtus Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Virtus International Small Cap is based on a synthetically constructed Virtus Internationaldaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Virtus International 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 16th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Virtus International Small Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 19.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.17, and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.15.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Virtus Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Virtus International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Virtus International Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Sep 30Oct 8Oct 16Oct 24Nov 1Nov 11Nov 19Nov 27Dec 6Dec 1519.019.520.020.5
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15Virtus International Virtus International forecast
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Virtus International Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Virtus International's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Virtus International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.63 and 20.04, respectively. We have considered Virtus International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
19.52
19.34
Expected Value
20.04
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Virtus International mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Virtus International mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria79.5551
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1636
MADMean absolute deviation0.3695
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0191
SAESum of the absolute errors15.148
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Virtus International 20-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Virtus International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Virtus International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
18.8119.5220.23
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
18.8619.5720.28
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
18.7719.3119.85
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Virtus International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Virtus International's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Virtus International's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Virtus International.

Other Forecasting Options for Virtus International

For every potential investor in Virtus, whether a beginner or expert, Virtus International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Virtus Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Virtus. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Virtus International's price trends.

Virtus International Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Virtus International mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Virtus International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Virtus International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Virtus International Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Virtus International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Virtus International's current price.

Virtus International Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Virtus International mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Virtus International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Virtus International mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Virtus International Small Cap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Virtus International Risk Indicators

The analysis of Virtus International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Virtus International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting virtus mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Virtus Mutual Fund

Virtus International financial ratios help investors to determine whether Virtus Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Virtus with respect to the benefits of owning Virtus International security.
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