CarMax Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

XA4 Stock  EUR 80.46  3.22  4.17%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CarMax Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 80.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.14. CarMax Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of CarMax's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for CarMax - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When CarMax prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in CarMax price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of CarMax Inc.

CarMax Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of CarMax Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 80.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.04, mean absolute percentage error of 1.88, and the sum of the absolute errors of 61.14.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CarMax Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CarMax's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CarMax Stock Forecast Pattern

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CarMax Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CarMax's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CarMax's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 78.81 and 82.47, respectively. We have considered CarMax's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
80.46
80.64
Expected Value
82.47
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CarMax stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CarMax stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0159
MADMean absolute deviation1.0363
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0142
SAESum of the absolute errors61.14
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past CarMax observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older CarMax Inc observations.

Predictive Modules for CarMax

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CarMax Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
78.6380.4682.29
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
72.4186.9488.77
Details

Other Forecasting Options for CarMax

For every potential investor in CarMax, whether a beginner or expert, CarMax's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CarMax Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CarMax. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CarMax's price trends.

CarMax Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CarMax stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CarMax could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CarMax by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

CarMax Inc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CarMax's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CarMax's current price.

CarMax Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CarMax stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CarMax shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CarMax stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CarMax Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

CarMax Risk Indicators

The analysis of CarMax's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CarMax's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting carmax stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in CarMax Stock

When determining whether CarMax Inc offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of CarMax's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Carmax Inc Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Carmax Inc Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of CarMax to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CarMax's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CarMax is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CarMax's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.