Nasdaq 100 Index Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

A four-period moving average forecast model for Nasdaq 100 Total is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Nasdaq 100 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 30th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Nasdaq 100 Total on the next trading day is expected to be 26,119 with a mean absolute deviation of 296.39, mean absolute percentage error of 144,751, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16,894.

Nasdaq 100 Index Forecast Pattern

Nasdaq 100 Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nasdaq 100 index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nasdaq 100 index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Nasdaq 100. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Nasdaq 100 Total and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Nasdaq 100

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nasdaq 100 Total. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Nasdaq 100

For every potential investor in Nasdaq, whether a beginner or expert, Nasdaq 100's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nasdaq Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nasdaq. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nasdaq 100's price trends.

Nasdaq 100 Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Nasdaq 100 Total Technical and Predictive Analytics

The index market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Nasdaq 100's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Nasdaq 100's current price.

Nasdaq 100 Market Strength Events

Nasdaq 100 Risk Indicators

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.