Anhui Gujing (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 178.90
| 000596 Stock | 195.24 2.74 1.42% |
Anhui |
Anhui Gujing Target Price Odds to finish below 178.90
The tendency of Anhui Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 178.90 or more in 90 days |
| 195.24 | 90 days | 178.90 | about 38.26 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Anhui Gujing to drop to 178.90 or more in 90 days from now is about 38.26 (This Anhui Gujing Distillery probability density function shows the probability of Anhui Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Anhui Gujing Distillery price to stay between 178.90 and its current price of 195.24 at the end of the 90-day period is about 31.81 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Anhui Gujing has a beta of 0.37. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Anhui Gujing average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Anhui Gujing Distillery will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Anhui Gujing Distillery has an alpha of 0.2682, implying that it can generate a 0.27 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Anhui Gujing Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Anhui Gujing
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Anhui Gujing Distillery. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Anhui Gujing Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Anhui Gujing is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Anhui Gujing's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Anhui Gujing Distillery, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Anhui Gujing within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.27 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.37 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 19.79 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
Anhui Gujing Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Anhui Gujing for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Anhui Gujing Distillery can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Anhui Gujing appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Anhui Gujing is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 66.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Anhui Gujing Distillery Could Easily Take On More Debt - Simply Wall St |
Anhui Gujing Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Anhui Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Anhui Gujing's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Anhui Gujing's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 528.6 M |
Anhui Gujing Technical Analysis
Anhui Gujing's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Anhui Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Anhui Gujing Distillery. In general, you should focus on analyzing Anhui Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Anhui Gujing Predictive Forecast Models
Anhui Gujing's time-series forecasting models is one of many Anhui Gujing's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Anhui Gujing's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Anhui Gujing Distillery
Checking the ongoing alerts about Anhui Gujing for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Anhui Gujing Distillery help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Anhui Gujing appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Anhui Gujing is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 66.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Anhui Gujing Distillery Could Easily Take On More Debt - Simply Wall St |
Other Information on Investing in Anhui Stock
Anhui Gujing financial ratios help investors to determine whether Anhui Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Anhui with respect to the benefits of owning Anhui Gujing security.