Focus Media (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 13.42

002027 Stock   6.95  0.09  1.28%   
Focus Media's future price is the expected price of Focus Media instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Focus Media Information performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Focus Media Backtesting, Focus Media Valuation, Focus Media Correlation, Focus Media Hype Analysis, Focus Media Volatility, Focus Media History as well as Focus Media Performance.
  
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Focus Media Target Price Odds to finish over 13.42

The tendency of Focus Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over  13.42  or more in 90 days
 6.95 90 days 13.42 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Focus Media to move over  13.42  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Focus Media Information probability density function shows the probability of Focus Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Focus Media Information price to stay between its current price of  6.95  and  13.42  at the end of the 90-day period is about 40.54 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Focus Media Information has a beta of -0.24. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Focus Media are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Focus Media Information is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Focus Media Information has an alpha of 0.3762, implying that it can generate a 0.38 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Focus Media Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Focus Media

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Focus Media Information. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.436.979.51
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.085.628.16
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.090.090.1
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Focus Media. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Focus Media's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Focus Media's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Focus Media Information.

Focus Media Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Focus Media is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Focus Media's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Focus Media Information, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Focus Media within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.38
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.24
σ
Overall volatility
0.71
Ir
Information ratio 0.10

Focus Media Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Focus Media for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Focus Media Information can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Focus Media Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Focus Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Focus Media's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Focus Media's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding14.4 B

Focus Media Technical Analysis

Focus Media's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Focus Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Focus Media Information. In general, you should focus on analyzing Focus Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Focus Media Predictive Forecast Models

Focus Media's time-series forecasting models is one of many Focus Media's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Focus Media's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Focus Media Information

Checking the ongoing alerts about Focus Media for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Focus Media Information help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.

Other Information on Investing in Focus Stock

Focus Media financial ratios help investors to determine whether Focus Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Focus with respect to the benefits of owning Focus Media security.