Alliance Data (UK) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 39.22
| 0HCR Stock | 65.03 2.66 4.26% |
Alliance |
Alliance Data Target Price Odds to finish over 39.22
The tendency of Alliance Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 39.22 in 90 days |
| 65.03 | 90 days | 39.22 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alliance Data to stay above 39.22 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Alliance Data Systems probability density function shows the probability of Alliance Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alliance Data Systems price to stay between 39.22 and its current price of 65.03 at the end of the 90-day period is about 98.0 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.25 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Alliance Data will likely underperform. Additionally Alliance Data Systems has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Alliance Data Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alliance Data
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alliance Data Systems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alliance Data Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alliance Data is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alliance Data's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alliance Data Systems, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alliance Data within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.25 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.24 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
Alliance Data Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alliance Data for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alliance Data Systems can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alliance Data had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Alliance Data is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Alliance Data Systems Earnings Preview - AOL |
Alliance Data Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alliance Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alliance Data's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alliance Data's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 50 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.6 B |
Alliance Data Technical Analysis
Alliance Data's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alliance Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alliance Data Systems. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alliance Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alliance Data Predictive Forecast Models
Alliance Data's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alliance Data's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alliance Data's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alliance Data Systems
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alliance Data for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alliance Data Systems help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alliance Data had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Alliance Data is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutions such as pension funds | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Alliance Data Systems Earnings Preview - AOL |
Additional Tools for Alliance Stock Analysis
When running Alliance Data's price analysis, check to measure Alliance Data's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alliance Data is operating at the current time. Most of Alliance Data's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alliance Data's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alliance Data's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alliance Data to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.