Chailease Holding (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 123.38
| 5871 Stock | TWD 121.00 1.50 1.22% |
Chailease |
Chailease Holding Target Price Odds to finish over 123.38
The tendency of Chailease Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over NT$ 123.38 or more in 90 days |
| 121.00 | 90 days | 123.38 | over 95.65 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Chailease Holding to move over NT$ 123.38 or more in 90 days from now is over 95.65 (This Chailease Holding Co probability density function shows the probability of Chailease Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Chailease Holding price to stay between its current price of NT$ 121.00 and NT$ 123.38 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.48 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Chailease Holding has a beta of 0.1. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Chailease Holding average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Chailease Holding Co will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Chailease Holding Co has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Chailease Holding Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Chailease Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Chailease Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Chailease Holding Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Chailease Holding is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Chailease Holding's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Chailease Holding Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Chailease Holding within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.29 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.10 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 12.63 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
Chailease Holding Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Chailease Holding for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Chailease Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Chailease Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Chailease Holding has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 24.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Chailease Holding Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Chailease Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Chailease Holding's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Chailease Holding's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.5 B |
Chailease Holding Technical Analysis
Chailease Holding's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Chailease Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Chailease Holding Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing Chailease Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Chailease Holding Predictive Forecast Models
Chailease Holding's time-series forecasting models is one of many Chailease Holding's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Chailease Holding's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Chailease Holding
Checking the ongoing alerts about Chailease Holding for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Chailease Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Chailease Holding generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Chailease Holding has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 24.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Chailease Stock Analysis
When running Chailease Holding's price analysis, check to measure Chailease Holding's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chailease Holding is operating at the current time. Most of Chailease Holding's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chailease Holding's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chailease Holding's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chailease Holding to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.