Sichuan Changhong (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 3.58
| 600839 Stock | 10.78 0.27 2.44% |
Sichuan |
Sichuan Changhong Target Price Odds to finish below 3.58
The tendency of Sichuan Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 3.58 or more in 90 days |
| 10.78 | 90 days | 3.58 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Sichuan Changhong to drop to 3.58 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Sichuan Changhong Electric probability density function shows the probability of Sichuan Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Sichuan Changhong price to stay between 3.58 and its current price of 10.78 at the end of the 90-day period is about 53.65 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Sichuan Changhong Electric has a beta of -0.26. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Sichuan Changhong are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Sichuan Changhong Electric is likely to outperform the market. Moreover Sichuan Changhong Electric has an alpha of 1.3042, implying that it can generate a 1.3 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Sichuan Changhong Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Sichuan Changhong
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sichuan Changhong. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sichuan Changhong Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Sichuan Changhong is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Sichuan Changhong's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Sichuan Changhong Electric, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Sichuan Changhong within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.30 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.26 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.93 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.23 |
Sichuan Changhong Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Sichuan Changhong for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Sichuan Changhong can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Sichuan Changhong is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Sichuan Changhong appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Sichuan Changhong is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 25.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Sichuan Changhong Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Sichuan Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Sichuan Changhong's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sichuan Changhong's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.6 B |
Sichuan Changhong Technical Analysis
Sichuan Changhong's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Sichuan Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Sichuan Changhong Electric. In general, you should focus on analyzing Sichuan Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Sichuan Changhong Predictive Forecast Models
Sichuan Changhong's time-series forecasting models is one of many Sichuan Changhong's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Sichuan Changhong's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Sichuan Changhong
Checking the ongoing alerts about Sichuan Changhong for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Sichuan Changhong help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Sichuan Changhong is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Sichuan Changhong appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Sichuan Changhong is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 25.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Other Information on Investing in Sichuan Stock
Sichuan Changhong financial ratios help investors to determine whether Sichuan Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Sichuan with respect to the benefits of owning Sichuan Changhong security.