China Everbright (China) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 3.17

601818 Stock   3.71  0.02  0.54%   
China Everbright's future price is the expected price of China Everbright instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of China Everbright Bank performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out China Everbright Backtesting, China Everbright Valuation, China Everbright Correlation, China Everbright Hype Analysis, China Everbright Volatility, China Everbright History as well as China Everbright Performance.
  
Please specify China Everbright's target price for which you would like China Everbright odds to be computed.

China Everbright Target Price Odds to finish over 3.17

The tendency of China Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above  3.17  in 90 days
 3.71 90 days 3.17 
about 85.26
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of China Everbright to stay above  3.17  in 90 days from now is about 85.26 (This China Everbright Bank probability density function shows the probability of China Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of China Everbright Bank price to stay between  3.17  and its current price of 3.71 at the end of the 90-day period is about 78.88 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon China Everbright has a beta of 0.0947. This suggests as returns on the market go up, China Everbright average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding China Everbright Bank will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally China Everbright Bank has an alpha of 0.196, implying that it can generate a 0.2 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   China Everbright Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for China Everbright

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Everbright Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
1.743.705.66
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1.573.535.49
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
1.643.605.57
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.000.000.00
Details

China Everbright Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. China Everbright is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the China Everbright's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold China Everbright Bank, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of China Everbright within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.20
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.09
σ
Overall volatility
0.21
Ir
Information ratio 0.04

China Everbright Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of China Everbright for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for China Everbright Bank can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
China Everbright generates negative cash flow from operations
About 55.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees

China Everbright Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of China Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential China Everbright's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. China Everbright's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding59.1 B

China Everbright Technical Analysis

China Everbright's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. China Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of China Everbright Bank. In general, you should focus on analyzing China Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

China Everbright Predictive Forecast Models

China Everbright's time-series forecasting models is one of many China Everbright's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary China Everbright's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about China Everbright Bank

Checking the ongoing alerts about China Everbright for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for China Everbright Bank help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
China Everbright generates negative cash flow from operations
About 55.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees

Other Information on Investing in China Stock

China Everbright financial ratios help investors to determine whether China Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in China with respect to the benefits of owning China Everbright security.