ATRIUM MORTGAGE (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 6.04
| 74O Stock | EUR 7.30 0.25 3.55% |
ATRIUM |
ATRIUM MORTGAGE Target Price Odds to finish below 6.04
The tendency of ATRIUM Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 6.04 or more in 90 days |
| 7.30 | 90 days | 6.04 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ATRIUM MORTGAGE to drop to € 6.04 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This ATRIUM MORTGAGE INVESTM probability density function shows the probability of ATRIUM Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ATRIUM MORTGAGE INVESTM price to stay between € 6.04 and its current price of €7.3 at the end of the 90-day period is about 49.96 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon ATRIUM MORTGAGE INVESTM has a beta of -0.5. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding ATRIUM MORTGAGE are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, ATRIUM MORTGAGE INVESTM is likely to outperform the market. Additionally ATRIUM MORTGAGE INVESTM has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. ATRIUM MORTGAGE Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ATRIUM MORTGAGE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ATRIUM MORTGAGE INVESTM. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.ATRIUM MORTGAGE Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ATRIUM MORTGAGE is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ATRIUM MORTGAGE's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ATRIUM MORTGAGE INVESTM, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ATRIUM MORTGAGE within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.5 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.17 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
ATRIUM MORTGAGE Technical Analysis
ATRIUM MORTGAGE's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ATRIUM Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ATRIUM MORTGAGE INVESTM. In general, you should focus on analyzing ATRIUM Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ATRIUM MORTGAGE Predictive Forecast Models
ATRIUM MORTGAGE's time-series forecasting models is one of many ATRIUM MORTGAGE's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ATRIUM MORTGAGE's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards ATRIUM MORTGAGE in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, ATRIUM MORTGAGE's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from ATRIUM MORTGAGE options trading.
Other Information on Investing in ATRIUM Stock
ATRIUM MORTGAGE financial ratios help investors to determine whether ATRIUM Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ATRIUM with respect to the benefits of owning ATRIUM MORTGAGE security.