Alcor Micro (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 117.0
| 8054 Stock | TWD 137.50 3.50 2.48% |
Alcor |
Alcor Micro Target Price Odds to finish below 117.0
The tendency of Alcor Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to NT$ 117.00 or more in 90 days |
| 137.50 | 90 days | 117.00 | under 4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcor Micro to drop to NT$ 117.00 or more in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Alcor Micro probability density function shows the probability of Alcor Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alcor Micro price to stay between NT$ 117.00 and its current price of NT$137.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 62.49 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Alcor Micro has a beta of 0.0314. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Alcor Micro average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Alcor Micro will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Alcor Micro has an alpha of 8.0E-4, implying that it can generate a 8.12E-4 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Alcor Micro Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alcor Micro
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alcor Micro. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alcor Micro Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alcor Micro is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alcor Micro's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alcor Micro, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alcor Micro within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.0008 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.03 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Alcor Micro Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alcor Micro for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alcor Micro can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alcor Micro generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alcor Micro generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 29.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Alcor Micro Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alcor Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alcor Micro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alcor Micro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 90.5 M |
Alcor Micro Technical Analysis
Alcor Micro's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alcor Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alcor Micro. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alcor Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alcor Micro Predictive Forecast Models
Alcor Micro's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alcor Micro's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alcor Micro's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alcor Micro
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alcor Micro for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alcor Micro help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alcor Micro generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alcor Micro generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 29.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for Alcor Stock Analysis
When running Alcor Micro's price analysis, check to measure Alcor Micro's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alcor Micro is operating at the current time. Most of Alcor Micro's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alcor Micro's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alcor Micro's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alcor Micro to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.