Analog Devices Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 214.89
| ADI Stock | USD 218.06 0.03 0.01% |
Analog |
Analog Devices Target Price Odds to finish below 214.89
The tendency of Analog Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 214.89 or more in 90 days |
| 218.06 | 90 days | 214.89 | about 18.37 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Analog Devices to drop to $ 214.89 or more in 90 days from now is about 18.37 (This Analog Devices probability density function shows the probability of Analog Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Analog Devices price to stay between $ 214.89 and its current price of $218.06 at the end of the 90-day period is about 13.77 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.04 . This suggests Analog Devices market returns are responsive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Analog Devices is expected to follow. Additionally Analog Devices has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Analog Devices Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Analog Devices
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Analog Devices. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Analog Devices' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Analog Devices Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Analog Devices is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Analog Devices' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Analog Devices, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Analog Devices within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.28 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Analog Devices Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Analog Devices for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Analog Devices can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Analog Devices generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Analog Devices is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Analog Devices has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 20th of December 2024 Analog Devices paid $ 0.92 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Is Semtech Stock Still Worth Buying After Its 190 percent YTD Rally |
Analog Devices Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Analog Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Analog Devices' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Analog Devices' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 498.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.4 B |
Analog Devices Technical Analysis
Analog Devices' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Analog Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Analog Devices. In general, you should focus on analyzing Analog Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Analog Devices Predictive Forecast Models
Analog Devices' time-series forecasting models is one of many Analog Devices' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Analog Devices' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Analog Devices
Checking the ongoing alerts about Analog Devices for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Analog Devices help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Analog Devices generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Analog Devices is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Analog Devices has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| On 20th of December 2024 Analog Devices paid $ 0.92 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Is Semtech Stock Still Worth Buying After Its 190 percent YTD Rally |
Check out Analog Devices Backtesting, Analog Devices Valuation, Analog Devices Correlation, Analog Devices Hype Analysis, Analog Devices Volatility, Analog Devices History as well as Analog Devices Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Analog Stock please use our How to Invest in Analog Devices guide.You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Is Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Analog Devices. If investors know Analog will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Analog Devices listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.55) | Earnings Share 3.27 | Revenue Per Share 19.544 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.25) | Return On Assets 0.0286 |
The market value of Analog Devices is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Analog that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Analog Devices' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Analog Devices' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Analog Devices' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Analog Devices' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Analog Devices' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Analog Devices is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Analog Devices' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.