Affirm Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 81.13
| AFRM Stock | USD 64.64 2.21 3.31% |
Affirm |
Affirm Holdings Target Price Odds to finish over 81.13
The tendency of Affirm Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 81.13 or more in 90 days |
| 64.64 | 90 days | 81.13 | about 1.35 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Affirm Holdings to move over $ 81.13 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.35 (This Affirm Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Affirm Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Affirm Holdings price to stay between its current price of $ 64.64 and $ 81.13 at the end of the 90-day period is about 18.73 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Affirm Holdings has a beta of -0.23. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Affirm Holdings are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Affirm Holdings is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Affirm Holdings has an alpha of 0.7307, implying that it can generate a 0.73 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Affirm Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Affirm Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Affirm Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Affirm Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Affirm Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Affirm Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Affirm Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Affirm Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.73 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.23 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 12.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.14 |
Affirm Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Affirm Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Affirm Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Affirm Holdings is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Affirm Holdings appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.32 B. Net Loss for the year was (517.76 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.01 B. | |
| Over 79.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Affirm Holdings Inc Stock Price Down 4.03 percent on Dec 27 |
Affirm Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Affirm Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Affirm Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Affirm Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 309.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.1 B |
Affirm Holdings Technical Analysis
Affirm Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Affirm Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Affirm Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Affirm Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Affirm Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
Affirm Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many Affirm Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Affirm Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Affirm Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Affirm Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Affirm Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Affirm Holdings is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Affirm Holdings appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.32 B. Net Loss for the year was (517.76 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.01 B. | |
| Over 79.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Affirm Holdings Inc Stock Price Down 4.03 percent on Dec 27 |
Check out Affirm Holdings Backtesting, Affirm Holdings Valuation, Affirm Holdings Correlation, Affirm Holdings Hype Analysis, Affirm Holdings Volatility, Affirm Holdings History as well as Affirm Holdings Performance. To learn how to invest in Affirm Stock, please use our How to Invest in Affirm Holdings guide.You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Is Data Processing & Outsourced Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Affirm Holdings. If investors know Affirm will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Affirm Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (1.41) | Revenue Per Share 8.055 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.407 | Return On Assets (0.04) | Return On Equity (0.17) |
The market value of Affirm Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Affirm that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Affirm Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Affirm Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Affirm Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Affirm Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Affirm Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Affirm Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Affirm Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.