LAir Liquide (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 161.28

AIL Stock   161.28  0.70  0.44%   
LAir Liquide's future price is the expected price of LAir Liquide instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of LAir Liquide SA performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out LAir Liquide Backtesting, LAir Liquide Valuation, LAir Liquide Correlation, LAir Liquide Hype Analysis, LAir Liquide Volatility, LAir Liquide History as well as LAir Liquide Performance.
  
Please specify LAir Liquide's target price for which you would like LAir Liquide odds to be computed.

LAir Liquide Target Price Odds to finish over 161.28

The tendency of LAir Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 161.28 90 days 161.28 
about 83.58
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of LAir Liquide to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 83.58 (This LAir Liquide SA probability density function shows the probability of LAir Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon LAir Liquide SA has a beta of -0.21. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding LAir Liquide are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, LAir Liquide SA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally LAir Liquide SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   LAir Liquide Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for LAir Liquide

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LAir Liquide SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of LAir Liquide's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
159.44160.58161.72
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
136.00137.14176.64
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
160.93162.07163.21
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
157.83159.46161.09
Details

LAir Liquide Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. LAir Liquide is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the LAir Liquide's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold LAir Liquide SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of LAir Liquide within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.06
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.21
σ
Overall volatility
5.28
Ir
Information ratio -0.15

LAir Liquide Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of LAir Liquide for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for LAir Liquide SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
LAir Liquide SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

LAir Liquide Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of LAir Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential LAir Liquide's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. LAir Liquide's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding521.5 M
Dividends Paid1.3 B
Short Long Term Debt2.2 B

LAir Liquide Technical Analysis

LAir Liquide's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. LAir Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of LAir Liquide SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing LAir Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

LAir Liquide Predictive Forecast Models

LAir Liquide's time-series forecasting models is one of many LAir Liquide's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary LAir Liquide's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about LAir Liquide SA

Checking the ongoing alerts about LAir Liquide for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for LAir Liquide SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
LAir Liquide SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

Additional Tools for LAir Stock Analysis

When running LAir Liquide's price analysis, check to measure LAir Liquide's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy LAir Liquide is operating at the current time. Most of LAir Liquide's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of LAir Liquide's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move LAir Liquide's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of LAir Liquide to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.