Alsea SAB (Mexico) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 49.04
| ALSEA Stock | MXN 44.64 1.18 2.58% |
Alsea |
Alsea SAB Target Price Odds to finish below 49.04
The tendency of Alsea Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 49.04 after 90 days |
| 44.64 | 90 days | 49.04 | about 35.29 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alsea SAB to stay under 49.04 after 90 days from now is about 35.29 (This Alsea SAB de probability density function shows the probability of Alsea Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alsea SAB de price to stay between its current price of 44.64 and 49.04 at the end of the 90-day period is about 31.06 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Alsea SAB de has a beta of -0.11. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Alsea SAB are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Alsea SAB de is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Alsea SAB de has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Alsea SAB Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alsea SAB
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alsea SAB de. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alsea SAB Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alsea SAB is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alsea SAB's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alsea SAB de, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alsea SAB within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.30 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.2 |
Alsea SAB Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alsea SAB for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alsea SAB de can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Alsea SAB de generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alsea SAB de has accumulated 30.36 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 5.69, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Alsea SAB de has a current ratio of 0.54, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Alsea SAB until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Alsea SAB's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Alsea SAB de sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Alsea to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Alsea SAB's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 37.0% of Alsea SAB shares are held by company insiders |
Alsea SAB Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alsea Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alsea SAB's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alsea SAB's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 838.6 M |
Alsea SAB Technical Analysis
Alsea SAB's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alsea Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alsea SAB de. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alsea Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alsea SAB Predictive Forecast Models
Alsea SAB's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alsea SAB's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alsea SAB's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alsea SAB de
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alsea SAB for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alsea SAB de help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Alsea SAB de generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Alsea SAB de has accumulated 30.36 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 5.69, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Alsea SAB de has a current ratio of 0.54, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Alsea SAB until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Alsea SAB's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Alsea SAB de sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Alsea to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Alsea SAB's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 37.0% of Alsea SAB shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Alsea Stock
Alsea SAB financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alsea Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alsea with respect to the benefits of owning Alsea SAB security.