Arafura Resources Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 0.08
| ARAFF Stock | USD 0.08 0.01 14.29% |
Arafura |
Arafura Resources Target Price Odds to finish below 0.08
The tendency of Arafura Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 0.08 | 90 days | 0.08 | about 10.8 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Arafura Resources to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 10.8 (This Arafura Resources probability density function shows the probability of Arafura Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Arafura Resources has a beta of -0.17. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Arafura Resources are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Arafura Resources is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Arafura Resources has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Arafura Resources Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Arafura Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arafura Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Arafura Resources Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Arafura Resources is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Arafura Resources' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Arafura Resources, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Arafura Resources within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.18 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Arafura Resources Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Arafura Resources for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Arafura Resources can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Arafura Resources generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Arafura Resources has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Arafura Resources has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Net Loss for the year was (35.56 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (28.18 M). | |
| Arafura Resources has accumulated about 24.68 M in cash with (27.16 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.01. | |
| Roughly 18.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Arafura Resources Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Arafura Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Arafura Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arafura Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.6 B |
Arafura Resources Technical Analysis
Arafura Resources' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Arafura Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Arafura Resources. In general, you should focus on analyzing Arafura Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Arafura Resources Predictive Forecast Models
Arafura Resources' time-series forecasting models is one of many Arafura Resources' pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Arafura Resources' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Arafura Resources
Checking the ongoing alerts about Arafura Resources for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Arafura Resources help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Arafura Resources generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Arafura Resources has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Arafura Resources has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Net Loss for the year was (35.56 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (28.18 M). | |
| Arafura Resources has accumulated about 24.68 M in cash with (27.16 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.01. | |
| Roughly 18.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Arafura Pink Sheet
Arafura Resources financial ratios help investors to determine whether Arafura Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Arafura with respect to the benefits of owning Arafura Resources security.