Augros Cosmetic (France) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.07
| AUGR Stock | EUR 7.20 0.10 1.37% |
Augros |
Augros Cosmetic Target Price Odds to finish below 0.07
The tendency of Augros Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 0.07 or more in 90 days |
| 7.20 | 90 days | 0.07 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Augros Cosmetic to drop to € 0.07 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Augros Cosmetic Packaging probability density function shows the probability of Augros Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Augros Cosmetic Packaging price to stay between € 0.07 and its current price of €7.2 at the end of the 90-day period is about 71.13 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Augros Cosmetic has a beta of 0.78. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Augros Cosmetic average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Augros Cosmetic Packaging will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Augros Cosmetic Packaging has an alpha of 0.6473, implying that it can generate a 0.65 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Augros Cosmetic Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Augros Cosmetic
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Augros Cosmetic Packaging. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Augros Cosmetic Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Augros Cosmetic is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Augros Cosmetic's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Augros Cosmetic Packaging, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Augros Cosmetic within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.65 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.78 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.86 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.11 |
Augros Cosmetic Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Augros Cosmetic for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Augros Cosmetic Packaging can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Augros Cosmetic is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Augros Cosmetic appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Augros Cosmetic has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Augros Cosmetic Packaging has accumulated 276 in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 84.3, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Augros Cosmetic Packaging has a current ratio of 0.72, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Augros Cosmetic until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Augros Cosmetic's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Augros Cosmetic Packaging sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Augros to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Augros Cosmetic's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Augros Cosmetic Packaging has accumulated about 203.36 K in cash with (375.61 K) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.14. | |
| Roughly 74.0% of Augros Cosmetic shares are held by company insiders |
Augros Cosmetic Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Augros Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Augros Cosmetic's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Augros Cosmetic's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 107.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 957.7 K |
Augros Cosmetic Technical Analysis
Augros Cosmetic's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Augros Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Augros Cosmetic Packaging. In general, you should focus on analyzing Augros Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Augros Cosmetic Predictive Forecast Models
Augros Cosmetic's time-series forecasting models is one of many Augros Cosmetic's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Augros Cosmetic's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Augros Cosmetic Packaging
Checking the ongoing alerts about Augros Cosmetic for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Augros Cosmetic Packaging help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Augros Cosmetic is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Augros Cosmetic appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Augros Cosmetic has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Augros Cosmetic Packaging has accumulated 276 in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 84.3, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Augros Cosmetic Packaging has a current ratio of 0.72, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Augros Cosmetic until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Augros Cosmetic's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Augros Cosmetic Packaging sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Augros to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Augros Cosmetic's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Augros Cosmetic Packaging has accumulated about 203.36 K in cash with (375.61 K) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.14. | |
| Roughly 74.0% of Augros Cosmetic shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Augros Stock
Augros Cosmetic financial ratios help investors to determine whether Augros Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Augros with respect to the benefits of owning Augros Cosmetic security.