Burcelik Vana (Turkey) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 29.92
| BURVA Stock | TRY 108.50 1.50 1.36% |
Burcelik |
Burcelik Vana Target Price Odds to finish below 29.92
The tendency of Burcelik Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 29.92 or more in 90 days |
| 108.50 | 90 days | 29.92 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Burcelik Vana to drop to 29.92 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Burcelik Vana Sanayi probability density function shows the probability of Burcelik Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Burcelik Vana Sanayi price to stay between 29.92 and its current price of 108.5 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.72 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Burcelik Vana has a beta of 0.47 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Burcelik Vana average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Burcelik Vana Sanayi will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Burcelik Vana Sanayi has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Burcelik Vana Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Burcelik Vana
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Burcelik Vana Sanayi. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Burcelik Vana Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Burcelik Vana is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Burcelik Vana's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Burcelik Vana Sanayi, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Burcelik Vana within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.23 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.47 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10.94 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
Burcelik Vana Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Burcelik Vana for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Burcelik Vana Sanayi can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Burcelik Vana Sanayi generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Burcelik Vana Sanayi has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Burcelik Vana Sanayi has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 40.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Burcelik Vana Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Burcelik Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Burcelik Vana's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Burcelik Vana's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Shares Float | 4.4 M |
Burcelik Vana Technical Analysis
Burcelik Vana's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Burcelik Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Burcelik Vana Sanayi. In general, you should focus on analyzing Burcelik Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Burcelik Vana Predictive Forecast Models
Burcelik Vana's time-series forecasting models is one of many Burcelik Vana's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Burcelik Vana's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Burcelik Vana Sanayi
Checking the ongoing alerts about Burcelik Vana for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Burcelik Vana Sanayi help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Burcelik Vana Sanayi generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Burcelik Vana Sanayi has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Burcelik Vana Sanayi has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 40.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Burcelik Stock
Burcelik Vana financial ratios help investors to determine whether Burcelik Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Burcelik with respect to the benefits of owning Burcelik Vana security.