CF Industries (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 83.09
| C4F Stock | EUR 84.54 0.76 0.91% |
C4F |
CF Industries Target Price Odds to finish below 83.09
The tendency of C4F Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 83.09 or more in 90 days |
| 84.54 | 90 days | 83.09 | about 91.62 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CF Industries to drop to € 83.09 or more in 90 days from now is about 91.62 (This CF Industries Holdings probability density function shows the probability of C4F Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CF Industries Holdings price to stay between € 83.09 and its current price of €84.54 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.03 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon CF Industries Holdings has a beta of -0.35 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding CF Industries are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, CF Industries Holdings is likely to outperform the market. Additionally CF Industries Holdings has an alpha of 0.2389, implying that it can generate a 0.24 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). CF Industries Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for CF Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CF Industries Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CF Industries Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CF Industries is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CF Industries' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CF Industries Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CF Industries within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.24 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.35 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.33 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
CF Industries Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CF Industries for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CF Industries Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| CF Industries has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Over 95.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
CF Industries Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of C4F Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential CF Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CF Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 195.6 M |
CF Industries Technical Analysis
CF Industries' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. C4F Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CF Industries Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing C4F Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
CF Industries Predictive Forecast Models
CF Industries' time-series forecasting models is one of many CF Industries' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CF Industries' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about CF Industries Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about CF Industries for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CF Industries Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| CF Industries has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Over 95.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in C4F Stock
When determining whether CF Industries Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze CF Industries' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact CF Industries' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding C4F Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out CF Industries Backtesting, CF Industries Valuation, CF Industries Correlation, CF Industries Hype Analysis, CF Industries Volatility, CF Industries History as well as CF Industries Performance. You can also try the Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.