Compagnie Financire (South Africa) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 245,306
| CFR Stock | 254,695 5,698 2.29% |
Compagnie |
Compagnie Financire Target Price Odds to finish below 245,306
The tendency of Compagnie Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 254,695 | 90 days | 254,695 | about 50.51 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Compagnie Financire to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 50.51 (This Compagnie Financire Richemont probability density function shows the probability of Compagnie Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Compagnie Financire has a beta of 0.34 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Compagnie Financire average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Compagnie Financire Richemont will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Compagnie Financire Richemont has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Compagnie Financire Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Compagnie Financire
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Compagnie Financire. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Compagnie Financire Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Compagnie Financire is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Compagnie Financire's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Compagnie Financire Richemont, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Compagnie Financire within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.34 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 10,976 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.11 |
Compagnie Financire Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Compagnie Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Compagnie Financire's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Compagnie Financire's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 567.4 M |
Compagnie Financire Technical Analysis
Compagnie Financire's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Compagnie Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Compagnie Financire Richemont. In general, you should focus on analyzing Compagnie Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Compagnie Financire Predictive Forecast Models
Compagnie Financire's time-series forecasting models is one of many Compagnie Financire's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Compagnie Financire's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Compagnie Financire in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Compagnie Financire's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Compagnie Financire options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Compagnie Stock
Compagnie Financire financial ratios help investors to determine whether Compagnie Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Compagnie with respect to the benefits of owning Compagnie Financire security.