COG Financial (Australia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.11
| COG Stock | 0.92 0.01 1.10% |
COG |
COG Financial Target Price Odds to finish below 1.11
The tendency of COG Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 1.11 after 90 days |
| 0.92 | 90 days | 1.11 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of COG Financial to stay under 1.11 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This COG Financial Services probability density function shows the probability of COG Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of COG Financial Services price to stay between its current price of 0.92 and 1.11 at the end of the 90-day period is about 72.67 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon COG Financial Services has a beta of -0.5 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding COG Financial are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, COG Financial Services is likely to outperform the market. Additionally COG Financial Services has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. COG Financial Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for COG Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as COG Financial Services. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.COG Financial Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. COG Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the COG Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold COG Financial Services, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of COG Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.5 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
COG Financial Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of COG Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for COG Financial Services can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| COG Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| COG Financial has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| COG Financial is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 32.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: COG Financial Services Reports Strong FY24 Growth - TipRanks |
COG Financial Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of COG Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential COG Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. COG Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 192.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 125.7 M |
COG Financial Technical Analysis
COG Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. COG Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of COG Financial Services. In general, you should focus on analyzing COG Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
COG Financial Predictive Forecast Models
COG Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many COG Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary COG Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about COG Financial Services
Checking the ongoing alerts about COG Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for COG Financial Services help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| COG Financial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| COG Financial has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| COG Financial is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| About 32.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: COG Financial Services Reports Strong FY24 Growth - TipRanks |
Additional Tools for COG Stock Analysis
When running COG Financial's price analysis, check to measure COG Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy COG Financial is operating at the current time. Most of COG Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of COG Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move COG Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of COG Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.