Collegium Pharmaceutical Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 30.43
| COLL Stock | USD 30.71 0.48 1.54% |
Closest to current price Collegium long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Collegium |
Collegium Pharmaceutical Target Price Odds to finish below 30.43
The tendency of Collegium Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 30.43 or more in 90 days |
| 30.71 | 90 days | 30.43 | nearly 4.29 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Collegium Pharmaceutical to drop to $ 30.43 or more in 90 days from now is nearly 4.29 (This Collegium Pharmaceutical probability density function shows the probability of Collegium Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Collegium Pharmaceutical price to stay between $ 30.43 and its current price of $30.71 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.18 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Collegium Pharmaceutical will likely underperform. Additionally Collegium Pharmaceutical has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Collegium Pharmaceutical Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Collegium Pharmaceutical
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Collegium Pharmaceutical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Collegium Pharmaceutical Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Collegium Pharmaceutical is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Collegium Pharmaceutical's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Collegium Pharmaceutical, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Collegium Pharmaceutical within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.41 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.19 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.16 |
Collegium Pharmaceutical Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Collegium Pharmaceutical for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Collegium Pharmaceutical can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Collegium Pharmaceutical generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Collegium Pharmaceutical currently holds 674.28 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 3.82, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Collegium Pharmaceutical has a current ratio of 0.97, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Collegium Pharmaceutical's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Over 98.0% of Collegium Pharmaceutical shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Empowered Funds LLC Acquires New Position in Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. |
Collegium Pharmaceutical Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Collegium Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Collegium Pharmaceutical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Collegium Pharmaceutical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 41.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 310.5 M |
Collegium Pharmaceutical Technical Analysis
Collegium Pharmaceutical's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Collegium Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Collegium Pharmaceutical. In general, you should focus on analyzing Collegium Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Collegium Pharmaceutical Predictive Forecast Models
Collegium Pharmaceutical's time-series forecasting models is one of many Collegium Pharmaceutical's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Collegium Pharmaceutical's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Collegium Pharmaceutical
Checking the ongoing alerts about Collegium Pharmaceutical for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Collegium Pharmaceutical help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Collegium Pharmaceutical generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Collegium Pharmaceutical currently holds 674.28 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 3.82, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Collegium Pharmaceutical has a current ratio of 0.97, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Collegium Pharmaceutical's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| Over 98.0% of Collegium Pharmaceutical shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from thelincolnianonline.com: Empowered Funds LLC Acquires New Position in Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. |
Check out Collegium Pharmaceutical Backtesting, Collegium Pharmaceutical Valuation, Collegium Pharmaceutical Correlation, Collegium Pharmaceutical Hype Analysis, Collegium Pharmaceutical Volatility, Collegium Pharmaceutical History as well as Collegium Pharmaceutical Performance. For more information on how to buy Collegium Stock please use our How to buy in Collegium Stock guide.You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Collegium Pharmaceutical. If investors know Collegium will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Collegium Pharmaceutical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.49) | Earnings Share 2.34 | Revenue Per Share 18.538 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.165 | Return On Assets 0.0968 |
The market value of Collegium Pharmaceutical is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Collegium that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Collegium Pharmaceutical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Collegium Pharmaceutical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Collegium Pharmaceutical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Collegium Pharmaceutical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Collegium Pharmaceutical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Collegium Pharmaceutical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Collegium Pharmaceutical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.