Collegium Pharmaceutical Stock Price Prediction
| COLL Stock | USD 30.71 0.48 1.54% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
27
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.49) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.66 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.1625 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.5775 | Wall Street Target Price 42.25 |
Using Collegium Pharmaceutical hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Collegium Pharmaceutical from the perspective of Collegium Pharmaceutical response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Collegium Pharmaceutical using Collegium Pharmaceutical's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Collegium using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Collegium Pharmaceutical's stock price.
Collegium Pharmaceutical Implied Volatility | 1.57 |
Collegium Pharmaceutical's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Collegium Pharmaceutical stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Collegium Pharmaceutical's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Collegium Pharmaceutical stock will not fluctuate a lot when Collegium Pharmaceutical's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Collegium Pharmaceutical to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Collegium because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Collegium Pharmaceutical after-hype prediction price | USD 30.43 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Collegium contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Collegium Pharmaceutical will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0981% per day over the life of the 2024-12-20 option contract. With Collegium Pharmaceutical trading at USD 30.71, that is roughly USD 0.0301 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Collegium Pharmaceutical's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Collegium Pharmaceutical options at the current volatility level of 1.57%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Collegium |
Collegium Pharmaceutical After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Collegium Pharmaceutical at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Collegium Pharmaceutical or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Collegium Pharmaceutical, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
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| Expected price to next headline |
Collegium Pharmaceutical Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Collegium Pharmaceutical's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Collegium Pharmaceutical's historical news coverage. Collegium Pharmaceutical's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 28.10 and 32.76, respectively. We have considered Collegium Pharmaceutical's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Collegium Pharmaceutical is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Collegium Pharmaceutical is based on 3 months time horizon.
Collegium Pharmaceutical Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Collegium Pharmaceutical is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Collegium Pharmaceutical backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Collegium Pharmaceutical, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 2.35 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 8 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
30.71 | 30.43 | 0.91 |
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Collegium Pharmaceutical Hype Timeline
Collegium Pharmaceutical is currently traded for 30.71. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.28, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.28. Collegium is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 30.43. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.91%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.33%. The volatility of related hype on Collegium Pharmaceutical is about 276.06%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.99. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Collegium Pharmaceutical was currently reported as 7.27. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Collegium Pharmaceutical Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Collegium Pharmaceutical Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Collegium Pharmaceutical's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Collegium Pharmaceutical's future price movements. Getting to know how Collegium Pharmaceutical's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Collegium Pharmaceutical may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PAHC | Phibro Animal Health | 1.52 | 10 per month | 1.72 | 0.03 | 3.86 | (2.45) | 9.05 | |
| PROC | Procaps Group SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 8.01 | 0.01 | 10.56 | (13.11) | 111.85 | |
| AMPH | Amphastar P | 2.13 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.37 | (3.61) | 17.30 | |
| ALKS | Alkermes Plc | (0.13) | 9 per month | 2.06 | (0.03) | 4.14 | (3.59) | 9.74 | |
| EOLS | Evolus Inc | (0.60) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.49 | (4.70) | 22.78 | |
| PBH | Prestige Brand Holdings | 0.32 | 10 per month | 1.04 | 0.07 | 1.90 | (1.76) | 4.90 | |
| PCRX | Pacira BioSciences, | 0.12 | 9 per month | 2.09 | 0.05 | 3.96 | (3.67) | 10.38 | |
| ITCI | Intracellular Th | 3.45 | 8 per month | 1.33 | 0.06 | 3.04 | (2.53) | 16.17 |
Collegium Pharmaceutical Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Collegium price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Collegium using various technical indicators. When you analyze Collegium charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About Collegium Pharmaceutical Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Collegium Pharmaceutical stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Collegium Pharmaceutical, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Collegium Pharmaceutical based on analysis of Collegium Pharmaceutical hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Collegium Pharmaceutical's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Collegium Pharmaceutical's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0748 | 0.0721 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.83 | 1.74 |
Story Coverage note for Collegium Pharmaceutical
The number of cover stories for Collegium Pharmaceutical depends on current market conditions and Collegium Pharmaceutical's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Collegium Pharmaceutical is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Collegium Pharmaceutical's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Collegium Pharmaceutical Short Properties
Collegium Pharmaceutical's future price predictability will typically decrease when Collegium Pharmaceutical's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Collegium Pharmaceutical often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Collegium Pharmaceutical's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Collegium Pharmaceutical's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 41.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 310.5 M |
Check out Collegium Pharmaceutical Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Collegium Stock please use our How to buy in Collegium Stock guide.You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Is Pharmaceuticals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Collegium Pharmaceutical. If investors know Collegium will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Collegium Pharmaceutical listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.49) | Earnings Share 2.34 | Revenue Per Share 18.538 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.165 | Return On Assets 0.0968 |
The market value of Collegium Pharmaceutical is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Collegium that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Collegium Pharmaceutical's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Collegium Pharmaceutical's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Collegium Pharmaceutical's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Collegium Pharmaceutical's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Collegium Pharmaceutical's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Collegium Pharmaceutical is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Collegium Pharmaceutical's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.