Elfun Tax Exempt Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 10.36
| ELFTX Fund | USD 10.10 0.05 0.49% |
Elfun |
Elfun Tax Target Price Odds to finish over 10.36
The tendency of Elfun Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 10.36 or more in 90 days |
| 10.10 | 90 days | 10.36 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Elfun Tax to move over $ 10.36 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Elfun Tax Exempt probability density function shows the probability of Elfun Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Elfun Tax Exempt price to stay between its current price of $ 10.10 and $ 10.36 at the end of the 90-day period is about 37.25 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Elfun Tax Exempt has a beta of -0.1 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Elfun Tax are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Elfun Tax Exempt is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Elfun Tax Exempt has an alpha of 8.0E-4, implying that it can generate a 8.02E-4 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Elfun Tax Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Elfun Tax
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Elfun Tax Exempt. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Elfun Tax's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Elfun Tax Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Elfun Tax is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Elfun Tax's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Elfun Tax Exempt, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Elfun Tax within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.0008 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.06 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.41 |
Elfun Tax Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Elfun Tax for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Elfun Tax Exempt can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Elfun Tax Exempt generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of 0.0% | |
| Elfun Tax Exempt retains about 98.7% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities |
Elfun Tax Technical Analysis
Elfun Tax's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Elfun Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Elfun Tax Exempt. In general, you should focus on analyzing Elfun Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Elfun Tax Predictive Forecast Models
Elfun Tax's time-series forecasting models is one of many Elfun Tax's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Elfun Tax's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Elfun Tax Exempt
Checking the ongoing alerts about Elfun Tax for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Elfun Tax Exempt help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Elfun Tax Exempt generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of 0.0% | |
| Elfun Tax Exempt retains about 98.7% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities |
Other Information on Investing in Elfun Mutual Fund
Elfun Tax financial ratios help investors to determine whether Elfun Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Elfun with respect to the benefits of owning Elfun Tax security.
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